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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Bloodstar
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Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward
      Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM

Chewing on things over here. Using Mark I eyeball, The storm is continuing to push ever so slightly north of the projected NHC path. As has been pointed out earlier, there is a slight bias in the later forecast time frames to the left (keeping the storm further left than projected). Couple that with storms rarely keeping such a straight as an arrow path (call it climatology and biases), and it's very easy to see why the NHC could be suspicious of the forecast paths on days 4 and 5. Toss in the model uncertainty (and if certain models don't hold onto the system, then how reliable are those models going to be?) and you have every reason to treat the forecast path on days 4 and 5 as little better than coin flips.

Of course, all this could be thrown out the window as the south east is literally baking underneath the high pressure (which is supposed to incidentally push Dean west to west north west) so it's quite possible that either the heat wave doesn't break a bit and dean continues the path, or something does come in and dean takes a more northerly course.

All of this is of course pointing towards a great 'i don't know' as far as where Dean is going. If i had to hazard any sort of guess, I'd say it's going to continue to track a hair to the right of the NHC path and come through just north of Jamaica, brush the western tip of Cuba and from there it's anyone's guess.

I'd also say it's not going to reach cat 5 (before entering the gulf) if it follows the path I think it will. simply too much interaction with land to wind up that hard. Now the biggest question that comes to mind, with all the heat content in the gulf, if it makes it in there relatively intact, with all that forward speed, there wont be time for any upwelling to hinder development, so it could simply slurp up all that energy and chug along like a freight train into somewhere, which also means if it keeps cruising along at 20+ MPH, it's going to get where it's going really quick. and people could get caught off guard in a very bad way (which is a nightmare scenario any way you look at it).

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Category 4 Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Toward Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Hispanola charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward madmumbler   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward craigm   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Dean Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Dean MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Dean Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: honeymoon Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:37 PM
. * * Re: honeymoon Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward weather_wise911   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:08 PM
. * * honeymoon HanKFranK   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward BlueBayou1   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward wxman007   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Bloodstar   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Kevin   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles anomaly18   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles FlaRebel   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles LisaC   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles LisaC   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles twizted sizter   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles WeatherNut   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles craigm   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles WeatherNut   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles EMSDoc1   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles NewWatcher   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands anomaly18   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles NewWatcher   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:18 PM
. * * She's opening her eye's DaViking   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles CDMOrlando   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Ed in Va   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Kraig   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:27 PM
. * * Dean And Dry Air charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:52 AM
. * * long range forecasts SeaMule   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weathernet   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles ftlaudbob   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles blue flash   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:56 AM

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