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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#29 9:00 am EDT
26.3N 91.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Nnw at 3 mph
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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward
      Fri Aug 17 2007 06:28 PM

Quote:

Watching the beginning of the 18z GFS operational run...seems to be struggling with the short-term intensity of Dean. Shows lowest central pressure of 1002 mb at 36 hours.

Dean is, and should be, a wee bit lower than that pressure-wise.



Yup...but modellers use a technique called vortex bogusing in situations like this. If you initalize a model with a 960-ish vortex the model doesn't like it at ALL, so the vortex is 'bogused" and raised in SLP to something the model can handle. This is done on purpose, and the it pretty much averages out in the first few time steps of of the model run.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Category 4 Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Toward Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 17 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Hispanola charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward craigm   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Dean Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:41 PM
. * * Dean Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:38 PM
. * * Re: honeymoon Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:37 PM
. * * Re: honeymoon Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward weather_wise911   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:08 PM
. * * honeymoon HanKFranK   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward BlueBayou1   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward wxman007   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Bloodstar   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Kevin   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles anomaly18   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles FlaRebel   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles LisaC   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles LisaC   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles twizted sizter   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles WeatherNut   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles craigm   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles WeatherNut   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles EMSDoc1   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles NewWatcher   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands anomaly18   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles NewWatcher   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:18 AM
. * * She's opening her eye's DaViking   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles CDMOrlando   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Ed in Va   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Kraig   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:27 AM
. * * Dean And Dry Air charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:52 AM
. * * long range forecasts SeaMule   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weathernet   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles ftlaudbob   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles hurricaneguy   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles charlottefl   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles blue flash   Thu Aug 16 2007 10:56 PM

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