Quote: Watching the beginning of the 18z GFS operational run...seems to be struggling with the short-term intensity of Dean. Shows lowest central pressure of 1002 mb at 36 hours.
Dean is, and should be, a wee bit lower than that pressure-wise.
Yup...but modellers use a technique called vortex bogusing in situations like this. If you initalize a model with a 960-ish vortex the model doesn't like it at ALL, so the vortex is 'bogused" and raised in SLP to something the model can handle. This is done on purpose, and the it pretty much averages out in the first few time steps of of the model run.
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Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward
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