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HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA. HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. #RAFAEL
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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Ene at 17 mph
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N at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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dem05
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Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength
      Fri Aug 17 2007 09:32 PM

The number 15 express has departed...I'm trying to be a bit humorous here on a Friday Night

Dean reached 15 north and has rode along that same latitude like along freight train on rails. Earlier today, everyone was concerned that Dean seemed alittle north of path, and he may be going elsewhere. Bottom line is this, if you trimline everything, Dean remains on the "Here to Jamaica" path. Don not get overly concerned about a little north of path, and little west of path for thenext 36 hours. This will happen and it means little.

Later on, and beyond Jamaica, the Riddler would have a field day. Being in SW Florida, I still think a visit from Dean is a wildcard. However, to phrase the ever and always confident and and straigh forward NHC Hurricane Specialist Avila at the the 5PMdiscussion, he offerred a blanket statement. Coming from him,this is a more significant message and he posted it at the end of the discussion.

"THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN."

I only mention this becuase a lot of folks are stating Alabama westward and etc. Florida Folks, it is not very likely that we will see something from this one, but keep in mind that it is out there and there are some atmospheric dynamics that could create a surprise change in course. If those changes in the forecast philospophy occur, you may need to take action...Just something to keep in mind in case of a surprise...With that said, I do not expect any major surprises at this time, but Saturday night into Sunday may be a day of truth along the Gulf...Everyone will have a much better idea of the upper ridge/trough/ULL interaction by then.

Otherwise, nothing much new to report in my thinking that hasn't already been said.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 17 2007 09:49 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 17 2007 09:32 PM
. * * Dean and the Upper Level Pattern dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hail ChessieStorm   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Hail weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength seabass   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Keeping Quiet NewWatcher   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Keeping Quiet mikethewreck   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Hail scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:43 AM
. * * Dean charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Hail Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Hail Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Hail MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Hail allan   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Hail jbmusic   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:14 AM
. * * dean and waves to follow HanKFranK   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models h2ocean   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Hail Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 AM
. * * Weakening? danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models tekkrite   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Hail Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Hail Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Hail Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:42 AM
. * * Hail danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:31 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:29 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update flanewscameraman   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:19 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:12 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update craigm   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:58 AM
. * * West Texas update mp3reed   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean madmumbler   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Dean dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:34 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:32 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:22 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:21 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models VolusiaMike   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Hurric   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:48 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:36 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Frank P   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:29 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:21 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Frank P   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:11 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:03 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:30 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Rich B   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:19 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models cieldumort   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:53 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Doombot!   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:38 AM
. * * 00Z Models Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: HDOBs and Vortex Messages Rabbit   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:04 AM
. * * GFDL PA101   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:37 AM
. * * HDOBs and Vortex Messages danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Dean scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Dean Just watching   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Dean Just watching   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Dean charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Miss Christine   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Beach   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Dean ltpat228   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Dean Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Dean danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Mike N   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength EMS   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength jbmusic   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength GENIE   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength wxman007   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:38 PM
. * * Herbert's Box ltpat228   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength DougBaker   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength allan   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:29 PM

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