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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
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Ene at 17 mph
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ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength
      Fri Aug 17 2007 09:54 PM

Yep, check out the "Recon Info" link on the left which has a "Hurricane Hunter" to English translation program there.

I want to trash the GFDL model right now. The latest run... don't even joke with me putting a 170MPH hurricane nearing Galveston/Houston. If you follow these models they will stress you out, this one is beginning to. If it shoots the gap as a strong storm into the hot central Guif, it's possible but probably overdone.

But like I said, I'm ready to trash it, and go with the westward trend, 15N, and that idea now. But still, this system has a ways to go, it hasn't reached Jamaica, still in the Eastern Caribbean and wouldn't be anywhere near the Gulf until Tuesday-Wednesday. So it helps to keep perspective.

edit: corrections made, initial reaction to the surprise was a little over the top.


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 17 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Dean and the Upper Level Pattern dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hail ChessieStorm   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Hail weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength seabass   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Keeping Quiet NewWatcher   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Keeping Quiet mikethewreck   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Hail scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:43 AM
. * * Dean charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Hail Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Hail Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Hail MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Hail allan   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Hail jbmusic   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:14 AM
. * * dean and waves to follow HanKFranK   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models h2ocean   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Hail Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 AM
. * * Weakening? danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models tekkrite   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Hail Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Hail Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Hail Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:42 AM
. * * Hail danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:31 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:29 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update flanewscameraman   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:19 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:12 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update craigm   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:58 AM
. * * West Texas update mp3reed   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean madmumbler   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Dean dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:34 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:32 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:22 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:21 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models VolusiaMike   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Hurric   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:48 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:36 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Frank P   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:29 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:21 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Frank P   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:11 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:03 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:30 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Rich B   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:19 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models cieldumort   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:53 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Doombot!   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:38 AM
. * * 00Z Models Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: HDOBs and Vortex Messages Rabbit   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:04 AM
. * * GFDL PA101   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:37 AM
. * * HDOBs and Vortex Messages danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Dean scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Dean Just watching   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Dean Just watching   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Dean charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Miss Christine   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Beach   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Dean ltpat228   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Dean Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Dean danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Mike N   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength EMS   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength jbmusic   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength GENIE   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength wxman007   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:38 PM
. * * Herbert's Box ltpat228   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength DougBaker   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength allan   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:29 PM

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