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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Dean
      Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM

After studying the aforementioned sat loops I can say with some assurance that Dean is not doing anything unusual, nor is it separating or becoming two storms. The fluctuations you see in the Dvorak loop are entirely reasonable...hurricanes pulse in intensity and the CDO will reflect this, and is reflecting this. The GHCC IR loop is showing mesovortices rotating around the center...again, entirely normal and seen in strong hurricanes. Dean is extremely impressive on IR this evening, and is doing nothing unusual or rare....it is behaving just as a Category 4 storm should.

I don't see any eyewall contraction yet, and there has been no indication from Quikscat or recon of an outer eyewall forming, so I would say we are a bit away from an ERC...it certainly does not appear to be imminent.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Dean and the Upper Level Pattern dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Hail ChessieStorm   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Hail weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength seabass   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Keeping Quiet NewWatcher   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:51 AM
. * * Keeping Quiet mikethewreck   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Hail scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:43 AM
. * * Dean charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Hail Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Hail Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Hail MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Hail allan   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Hail jbmusic   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Hail OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:14 AM
. * * dean and waves to follow HanKFranK   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:12 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models h2ocean   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Hail Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 AM
. * * Weakening? danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models tekkrite   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Hail Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:47 AM
. * * Re: Hail Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Hail Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:42 AM
. * * Hail danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:31 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:29 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update flanewscameraman   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:19 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:12 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: West Texas update craigm   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:58 AM
. * * West Texas update mp3reed   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean madmumbler   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Dean dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:34 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:32 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:22 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:21 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models VolusiaMike   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Hurric   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:48 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:36 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Frank P   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:29 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:21 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Frank P   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:11 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models WeatherNLU   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:03 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:30 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Rich B   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:19 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models cieldumort   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:53 AM
. * * Re: 00Z Models Doombot!   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:38 AM
. * * 00Z Models Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:26 AM
. * * Re: HDOBs and Vortex Messages Rabbit   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:04 AM
. * * GFDL PA101   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:37 AM
. * * HDOBs and Vortex Messages danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Dean scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Dean Just watching   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Dean Just watching   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean wxman007   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Dean charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Miss Christine   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Beach   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Dean ltpat228   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Dean Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 AM
. * * Dean danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Mike N   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength EMS   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength jbmusic   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength GENIE   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength wxman007   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:38 PM
. * * Herbert's Box ltpat228   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength DougBaker   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean Reaches Category 4 Strength allan   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:29 PM

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