There is an abundance of tropical cyclogenesis potential in the Atlantic, and a few model runs want to spin one or more of the most conducive areas up. Currently, the entire stretch from just east of Dean all the way back to the Cape Verde islands is a veritable breeding ground.
Getting back to Dean,
Dean has been flirting with a pinhole eye all evening/night. No signs of an ERC, as some have suggested. The appearance of one is merely the eye tightening up a bit.. normal fluctuations. However, given the occasional foray into a pinhole eye-like scene, it is worth nothing that the TCHP in the western Caribbean is running potentially even higher now than around this time in 2005. Dean may be able to pull off an all-out Wilma while in the western Caribbean. The current forecast out of NHC for a Cat 5 before crossing over the Yucatan, while not a certainty, more than likely did not cost them one single bead of worry sweat that they were stretching a bit. Six more mph and Dean's there.
With respect to the models which have consistently forced Dean's future track to the southernmost ends of the guidance envelope, all of these have initialized him poorly. While one doesn't want to completely throw them out, you just about can, again, because they are not tracking Dean. They have been tracking and creating forecasts based on a weak Cat 1 or Tropical Storm.. and some have even initialized Dean as a neutral core. Nuts. This is garbage in - garbage out forecasting. Stick with the GFDL , HWRF, and certainly NHC, for now.
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