Looks like Dean could make it to Cat 5 at anytime. The 154kt flight level wind measured by RECON earlier would support it, but evidently these winds havent made it to the surfasce enough to warrant the upgrade. Looking at the latest IR imagery, there are no current indications of an ERC, but these are likely as Dean strengthens further. With the high heat content, the low shear, and the track far enough to the south of Hispaniola, he has little to hinder him. Jamaica looks set to get a pounding, as do the low-lying Caymans. Could be pretty catastrophic for these islands. Interesting how models continue to diverge on where Dean will go once past the Caymans, and just goes to show how predictable these things are, and how much everyonhe around the Gulf, Yucatan, and Cuba really need to watch closely, and prepare just in case.
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