Good morning everyone, I got a few messages from folks that were kind of hoping that I would have put some more meat and potatoes into my post last night, so I will try and do that this morning. Sorry 'bout that guys!
First, NLU is certainly correct...I also agree with this mornings post that we may be getting closer to "moments of truth" on the interaction of the ULL. Dean has broken free of Route 15 as I am sure that most of you have noticed this already morning. There are one of two thoughts toward this mornings motion. The first one is more straightforward and in line with my thinking last night. Second one will be many hours away from any confirmation. - Thought 1: As Dean had done yesterday, he is moving a little north of track. Later this evening we may se him bend more to the west again like he did last night, when at 15 degrees north. If so, the overall average motion would basically be in line with the forecast track. -Thought 2: Dean may be getting close enough to the "Bahamas ULL" (Which I will now refer to as the FL ULL), to feel some of the effects. I am giving option 2 a little more weight this morning than I would have when I posted last night. However, my reasoning for this is not due to the Satellite motion, which is depicting a more northward component. If there is any hint that this wobble may be indicative of some interaction with the ULL, the indication is in Dean’s forward speed. In this mornings 5AM NHC Discussion, the NHC has stated that the forward speed of Dean has decreased again. It would be expected that if Dean was going to feel some of the effects of the ULL, then Dean would have to get close enough to the ULL that it would approach the edge of the ridge...Hence, the forward speed would decrease. While Dean has closed the gap on the ULL over the last few days, I don't think it has closed the gap enough to feel any big influence...However, this may be a sign of things to come. So forward speed will be something to watch today and I imagine there will be some more ground truth as to whether or not this maybe what is going on in about 24 hours or so.
I'd like to take some time to review this morning’s satellite loops and data in a little more detail, but I'll be back in a bit with another post this morning.
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