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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean Continues
      Sat Aug 18 2007 11:24 AM Attachment (349 downloads)

This is a re-post from the previous thread

I’ve attached an image I created that depicts the upper level features over the CONUS and Atlantic Basin. You may want to make a copy to follow along in the discussion. I hope it helps in depicting some of what I am seeing.

I’d also like to repost the Water Vapor Links:

Pacific NW Water Vapor Loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html
Atlantic Wide Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
NW Atlantic Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
CONUS Water Vapor: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Well, I have a bag full of wrenches, so I may as well start throwing. Before I do however, I do want to caution that I will not be delving into the models or basing my statements on much of what the models have to say. Traditionally, this is a dangerous game, but with indication that the models are having a tough time in initializing storm intensity, the intensity of the upper level features, and problems with the models racing Dean off probably a bit too fast, I’ve decided not to go much farther in my discussion of them than this. With that said, the models very well may have the correct solution albeit they are not performing as well as one would hope.

The breakdown:
The Florida Upper Level Low is on the move again. From my best estimate, the center is probably right about above my head here in SW FL as I type. It does look like it is now trying to tuck south of the High Pressure Ridge. At some point, I will imagine that the Upper Low will have to either stall or phase out. At this point, it shows no evidence of phasing out, but that may happen in a couple days. Earlier, someone asked about Dean’s forward speed slowdown and how the interaction will affect track. If the Upper Level low had been stationary right now, we would likely expect that Dean would be turning North at some point. However, The Upper Level Low is also moving westward, so I would expect it’s overall influences to resulting a general WNW motion for the next 2-3 days. Dean is probably close enough to feel some of these effects now, but it is also far enough away that I would expect to see subtle fluctuations in forward speed and direction. In other words, Dean slows down a bit, the ULL moves a bit further away, the ridge builds backing a bit and Dean will move slightly faster and a little more westerly…Then Dean will catch up again, slow down and move a bit more WNWerly. In general though, I would not dismiss the Idea that Dean may get closer to Haiti than anticipated. Later on down the road, if the Upper Level low does not phase out and it stalls between 90-95W…I would say that chances for problems in the Eastern Gulf would really increase…Otherwise, the further west it can move before stalling or dissipating will result in problems points west.

Side note/disclaimer: The yellow arrows do not show a forecasted track. They are just there to show the upper air flow ahead of Dean.

Looking at the mid latitude weather systems and the jet stream, there are some other considerations to make. The jet stream over the CONUSis not zonal like it was a few days ago. (The jet stream is identified in the pink, the movement of the jet stream is outlined with Green Arrows). The trough over the Northeast US is moving out and being replaced by a ridge. The ridge is highlighted in Blue and this is the feature that the Florida ULL will sweep under. With that said, the ridge IS moving east, and may continue to do so through this evolution. There is a pretty darn good trough entering the Pacific. This trough is probably starting to move the US weather patterns along. At this time, I know the $64,000 question would be…Will that trough get into the Gulf area. Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer for that or if it would have a direct affect on Dean…But it is something to watch, and I have included a link to the Pacific NW Water Vapor Loop. With that said, it is not impossible to assume that the Florida ULL may stall in a couple days as the High Pressure ridge moves east and the Upper Level Low moves around to the SW Side of the ridge. For an additional quirk that may be another wildcard factor…It does appear that the remnants of Erin may also be evolving into a weak upper level low feature. I really can’t say that this would have any ramifications on the overall upper level pattern, but over time, it will be interesting to see if anything unfolds with that.

So that’s basically the way I see it right now…Unfortunately there are more questions than answers, but it is still to early to Pinpoint specific threats and/or dismiss any Gulf Coast possibilities at this point. Keep on tracking…

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 18 2007 11:26 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 18 2007 11:24 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weather999   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:40 PM
. * * Mean Dean twizted sizter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:13 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SkyWarn536A   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 PM
. * * STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:49 PM
. * * Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:47 PM
. * * what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? louisianatracker   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? javlin   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? oil tracker   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? JustMe   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Ed in Va   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Sea temps lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Forum Rules Reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:08 PM
. * * Pressure down to 920 mb neospaceblue   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Bloodstar   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? belfast-jj   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues AmateurJohn   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? bobbutts   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:50 PM
. * * Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Genesis   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weathernet   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues R2RICKSTER   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues RideTheLightning   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues pcola   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues mr jimmy   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:24 AM

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