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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 125
Re: Dean Continues
      Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 PM

The ULL and Ridge presently in place and Trough coming are the flies in the ointment, as noted.

My concern here is that people from Mid-Texas up around to roughly Mobile are basically blowing this off, and people further east are simply ignoring this storm entirely.

While the probabilities favor the NHC's general solution, I am not yet sold.

With the general premise that Hurricanes move towards the weakest atmospheric feature, a fracture in that ridge or worse, a trough that displaces it (if it gets here in time) could be really ugly. Now add the ULL into that and things potentially get even worse.

The GFDL has been all over the place with this storm (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/) and as recently as 18 hours ago was looking directly at this potential, aiming at the middle of Lousiana! Now its after the SW edge of Texas. This sort of wild fluctuation tells me that the models have a SEVERE problem at present getting a handle on the interaction of these features,

I would not write off this storm in terms of the track holding; we should have a much better handle on this come Sunday, but that means you've only got a couple of days to get your act together! If you need wood or supplies and are in the Gulf - anywhere in the Gulf - DO IT NOW.

I am personally completing preparations for my ability to skedaddle (and I'm near Destin) TODAY. The odds are very low that this storm comes this far to the east, BUT I do not like the uncertainties in the atmosphere right now as the interactions are too complex for me to buy a single solution at the present time.

Further, anything that gets into the Gulf without serious interaction with land first (e.g. not going over much of the Yucatan or much of Cuba - basically shooting the straights) is going to be really bad simply due to oceanic heat content. The Gulf is virtually a HOTTUB right now - up here in the Northern Gulf we've had a couple of solid weeks of near-100F weather with few breaks and surface temperatures are extremely high, with the thermocline breaks being unusually deep. As such I'm deeply concerned about the heat content and thus the fuel available to sustain an extremely strong storm.

Is it really bad if you have a full tank of gas in the car and the storm doesn't come your way?

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weather999   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:40 PM
. * * Mean Dean twizted sizter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:13 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SkyWarn536A   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 PM
. * * STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:49 PM
. * * Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:47 PM
. * * what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? louisianatracker   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? javlin   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? oil tracker   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? JustMe   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Ed in Va   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Sea temps lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Forum Rules Reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:08 PM
. * * Pressure down to 920 mb neospaceblue   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Bloodstar   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? belfast-jj   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues AmateurJohn   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? bobbutts   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:50 PM
. * * Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Genesis   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weathernet   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues R2RICKSTER   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues RideTheLightning   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues pcola   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues mr jimmy   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:24 AM

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