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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 125
Re: Dean Continues
      Sat Aug 18 2007 05:26 PM

The ULL and Ridge presently in place and Trough coming are the flies in the ointment, as noted.

My concern here is that people from Mid-Texas up around to roughly Mobile are basically blowing this off, and people further east are simply ignoring this storm entirely.

While the probabilities favor the NHC's general solution, I am not yet sold.

With the general premise that Hurricanes move towards the weakest atmospheric feature, a fracture in that ridge or worse, a trough that displaces it (if it gets here in time) could be really ugly. Now add the ULL into that and things potentially get even worse.

The GFDL has been all over the place with this storm (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/) and as recently as 18 hours ago was looking directly at this potential, aiming at the middle of Lousiana! Now its after the SW edge of Texas. This sort of wild fluctuation tells me that the models have a SEVERE problem at present getting a handle on the interaction of these features,

I would not write off this storm in terms of the track holding; we should have a much better handle on this come Sunday, but that means you've only got a couple of days to get your act together! If you need wood or supplies and are in the Gulf - anywhere in the Gulf - DO IT NOW.

I am personally completing preparations for my ability to skedaddle (and I'm near Destin) TODAY. The odds are very low that this storm comes this far to the east, BUT I do not like the uncertainties in the atmosphere right now as the interactions are too complex for me to buy a single solution at the present time.

Further, anything that gets into the Gulf without serious interaction with land first (e.g. not going over much of the Yucatan or much of Cuba - basically shooting the straights) is going to be really bad simply due to oceanic heat content. The Gulf is virtually a HOTTUB right now - up here in the Northern Gulf we've had a couple of solid weeks of near-100F weather with few breaks and surface temperatures are extremely high, with the thermocline breaks being unusually deep. As such I'm deeply concerned about the heat content and thus the fuel available to sustain an extremely strong storm.

Is it really bad if you have a full tank of gas in the car and the storm doesn't come your way?

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 18 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weather999   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:33 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:19 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:58 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:57 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:51 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:40 AM
. * * Mean Dean twizted sizter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? WeatherNut   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:13 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:12 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SkyWarn536A   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:07 AM
. * * STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:49 AM
. * * Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:47 AM
. * * what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic vineyardsaker   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? louisianatracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? javlin   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? JustMe   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Ed in Va   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Sea temps lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Forum Rules Reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:08 AM
. * * Pressure down to 920 mb neospaceblue   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Bloodstar   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? belfast-jj   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues AmateurJohn   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? bobbutts   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Genesis   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weathernet   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues R2RICKSTER   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues RideTheLightning   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues pcola   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues mr jimmy   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:24 PM

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