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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

Reged:
Posts: 1710

Re: Recon is in there
Sat Aug 18 2007 08:47 PM

The recon vortex message was kinda incomplete, but here's what I think is going on based off of what they've sent back...

1) Eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is not yet complete. That's a CO for concentric in the eye character bullet, not a C0 for circular (with no radius info).

2) Accordingly, the maximum surface winds aren't responding to that 920mb pressure. Note that the 918mb pressure referenced elsewhere is also an extrapolated value and comes from the aircraft and the SFMR instrument.

3) The ERC is *almost* done given the small temperature differential between inside and outside the eye. This suggests that it is akin to sampling inside of the larger eye but separated by the remnants of the inner eyewall.

4) Assuming this ERC completes soon, it will shortly be over the warm eddy in the central Caribbean, as seen via http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007228ca.jpg. This spells trouble for the nighttime hours, particularly when coupled with the diurnal convective maximum. The only potentially negative factor would be flow over Hispaniola causing dry air intrusion into the storm, but I feel that Dean is far enough away from it plus has significant other inflow channels for this to not be a factor.

Simply put, I feel that once the ERC cycle completes within the next hour or two, it will be just a matter of time before Dean becomes a category 5 hurricane.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Dean Continues	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:47 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	Lamar-Plant City	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:38 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Thunderbird12	Sun Aug 19 2007 05:23 AM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sun Aug 19 2007 02:31 AM
Re: Dean Continues	OUSHAWN	Sun Aug 19 2007 01:07 AM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
Re: Dean Continues	weather999	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
Re: Dean Continues	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:36 AM
Re: Dean Continues	dem05	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:33 AM
Re: Dean Continues	oil tracker	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
Re: Dean Continues	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:24 AM
Re: Dean Continues	OUSHAWN	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:20 AM
Re: Dean Continues	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
Re: Dean Continues	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:58 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:56 PM
Re: Dean Continues	SirCane	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:49 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Thunderbird12	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:41 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:40 PM
Mean Dean	twizted sizter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:37 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	WeatherNut	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:35 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:21 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:13 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	GuppieGrouper	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
Re: Dean Continues	SkyWarn536A	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 PM
STORM SURGE	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:06 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:49 PM
Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:47 PM
what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:46 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	louisianatracker	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:38 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:37 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	javlin	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:04 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:53 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	oil tracker	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	JustMe	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:43 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:30 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:20 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Ed in Va	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:11 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:03 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:00 PM
Sea temps	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:59 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	weatherguy08	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:49 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:47 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:28 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:19 PM
Forum Rules Reminder	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:17 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:15 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:08 PM
Pressure down to 920 mb	neospaceblue	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:01 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:55 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	OUSHAWN	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Thunderbird12	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:38 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:32 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 06:54 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 06:52 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Bloodstar	Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 05:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	weatherguy08	Sat Aug 18 2007 05:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 05:14 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	belfast-jj	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:54 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:53 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	weather999	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:52 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	charlottefl	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:46 PM
Re: Dean Continues	AmateurJohn	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:42 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:41 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:33 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:07 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:56 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:49 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:47 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:37 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:25 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	StPeteBill	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	bobbutts	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:12 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Beaumont, TX	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:06 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:58 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	StPeteBill	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:50 PM
Dean v. Louisiana?	weatherguy08	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:31 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:16 PM
Re: Dean Continues	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
Re: Dean Continues	SirCane	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:46 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:39 PM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Dean Continues	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Genesis	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 PM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:10 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:05 PM
Re: Dean Continues	weathernet	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:40 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:39 PM
Re: Dean Continues	R2RICKSTER	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 PM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
Re: Dean Continues	RideTheLightning	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
Re: Dean Continues	pcola	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:22 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Allison	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Dean Continues	mr jimmy	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:44 AM
Re: Dean Continues	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:24 AM

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