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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Dean v. Louisiana?
Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM

I did get a message from a fellow poster that my post was confusing/ sounding greek in my post. If I got a bit to wordy, I do apologize. I think there will be a fair amount of weather to watch over the next 4 days...and I was trying to cover all the bases. Maybe I may have gone too far in trying doing that...But here are a few bullet points to try and simplfy. I will try to simplifyin the future.

- GoMex ULL is moving west at a good clip right now, porbably far enough west that the implications of it are waning for the moment right now.
- Any turn in path that would concern the Eastern Gulf (Florida and Alabama) would only occur in 48-60 hours (Between the Caymans and the Yucatan)...With an extreme unlikelihood of this ever happenning (I'd say 85% chance against is).
- Any turn toward the central gulf states would need to occur before 95 west. Also highly unlikely, but a little more possible that a turn in the eastern gulf.
- Excellent and ever persistant model agreement favors the western Gulf (Mexico and Texas), but there may still be some unanswered questions regarding the future of the Ridge and troughs in the mid latitudes...as well asthe ULL in the gulf and the Atlantic Ridge. Time will tell if the models really do have it right, but I think there are additional questions since the models seem to have an agreeable Hurricane forecast, yet have varying solutions for the mid latitude flow.

BottomLine: I am only rebellious slightly against the models becuase I expect there is still some small level of chance that Dean Could turn in 48+ hours. But the models have been going on toward the west for long enough that is is looking safer and safer for the eastern and central gulf at the moment. I hope this help to clear some things up, but you can PM me with questions if you would like.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Dean Continues	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	Lamar-Plant City	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:38 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Thunderbird12	Sun Aug 19 2007 05:23 AM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sun Aug 19 2007 02:31 AM
Re: Dean Continues	OUSHAWN	Sun Aug 19 2007 01:07 AM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
Re: Dean Continues	weather999	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
Re: Dean Continues	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:36 AM
Re: Dean Continues	dem05	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:33 AM
Re: Dean Continues	oil tracker	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
Re: Dean Continues	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:24 AM
Re: Dean Continues	OUSHAWN	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:20 AM
Re: Dean Continues	lunkerhunter	Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
Re: Dean Continues	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:58 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:56 PM
Re: Dean Continues	SirCane	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:49 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Thunderbird12	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:41 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:40 PM
Mean Dean	twizted sizter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:37 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	WeatherNut	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:35 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:21 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:13 PM
Re: STORM SURGE	GuppieGrouper	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
Re: Dean Continues	SkyWarn536A	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 PM
STORM SURGE	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:06 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:49 PM
Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:47 PM
what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:46 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	louisianatracker	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:38 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:37 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	javlin	Sat Aug 18 2007 10:04 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:53 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	oil tracker	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	JustMe	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:43 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:30 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:20 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Ed in Va	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:11 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:03 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 09:00 PM
Sea temps	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:59 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	weatherguy08	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:49 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:47 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:28 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:19 PM
Forum Rules Reminder	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:17 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	StrmTrckrMiami	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:15 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 PM
Re: Recon is in there	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:08 PM
Pressure down to 920 mb	neospaceblue	Sat Aug 18 2007 08:01 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:55 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	OUSHAWN	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Thunderbird12	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:38 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	lunkerhunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:32 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 06:54 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 06:52 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Bloodstar	Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 05:51 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	weatherguy08	Sat Aug 18 2007 05:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 05:14 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	belfast-jj	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:54 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:53 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	weather999	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:52 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	charlottefl	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:46 PM
Re: Dean Continues	AmateurJohn	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:42 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:41 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Storm Hunter	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:33 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 04:07 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:56 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:49 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:47 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	MikeC	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:37 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:25 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	StPeteBill	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:20 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	bobbutts	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:12 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Beaumont, TX	Sat Aug 18 2007 03:06 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:58 PM
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?	StPeteBill	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:50 PM
Dean v. Louisiana?	weatherguy08	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:31 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Nathan	Sat Aug 18 2007 02:16 PM
Re: Dean Continues	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
Re: Dean Continues	SirCane	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:46 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Clark	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:39 PM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Dean Continues	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Genesis	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 PM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:10 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 01:05 PM
Re: Dean Continues	weathernet	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Hugh	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:40 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Random Chaos	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:39 PM
Re: Dean Continues	R2RICKSTER	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 PM
Re: Dean Continues	scottsvb	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
Re: Dean Continues	RideTheLightning	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
Re: Dean Continues	pcola	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:22 PM
Re: Dean Continues	Allison	Sat Aug 18 2007 12:14 PM
Re: Dean Continues	mr jimmy	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:44 AM
Re: Dean Continues	dem05	Sat Aug 18 2007 11:24 AM

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