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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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dem05
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Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?
      Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM

I did get a message from a fellow poster that my post was confusing/ sounding greek in my post. If I got a bit to wordy, I do apologize. I think there will be a fair amount of weather to watch over the next 4 days...and I was trying to cover all the bases. Maybe I may have gone too far in trying doing that...But here are a few bullet points to try and simplfy. I will try to simplifyin the future.

- GoMex ULL is moving west at a good clip right now, porbably far enough west that the implications of it are waning for the moment right now.
- Any turn in path that would concern the Eastern Gulf (Florida and Alabama) would only occur in 48-60 hours (Between the Caymans and the Yucatan)...With an extreme unlikelihood of this ever happenning (I'd say 85% chance against is).
- Any turn toward the central gulf states would need to occur before 95 west. Also highly unlikely, but a little more possible that a turn in the eastern gulf.
- Excellent and ever persistant model agreement favors the western Gulf (Mexico and Texas), but there may still be some unanswered questions regarding the future of the Ridge and troughs in the mid latitudes...as well asthe ULL in the gulf and the Atlantic Ridge. Time will tell if the models really do have it right, but I think there are additional questions since the models seem to have an agreeable Hurricane forecast, yet have varying solutions for the mid latitude flow.

BottomLine: I am only rebellious slightly against the models becuase I expect there is still some small level of chance that Dean Could turn in 48+ hours. But the models have been going on toward the west for long enough that is is looking safer and safer for the eastern and central gulf at the moment. I hope this help to clear some things up, but you can PM me with questions if you would like.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weather999   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:58 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:40 PM
. * * Mean Dean twizted sizter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:13 PM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SkyWarn536A   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:07 PM
. * * STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:49 PM
. * * Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:47 PM
. * * what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? louisianatracker   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? javlin   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? oil tracker   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? JustMe   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Ed in Va   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Sea temps lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Forum Rules Reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:08 PM
. * * Pressure down to 920 mb neospaceblue   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Bloodstar   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? belfast-jj   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues AmateurJohn   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? bobbutts   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:50 PM
. * * Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Genesis   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weathernet   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues R2RICKSTER   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues RideTheLightning   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues pcola   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues mr jimmy   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:24 AM

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