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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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dem05
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Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?
      Sun Aug 19 2007 01:59 AM

I did get a message from a fellow poster that my post was confusing/ sounding greek in my post. If I got a bit to wordy, I do apologize. I think there will be a fair amount of weather to watch over the next 4 days...and I was trying to cover all the bases. Maybe I may have gone too far in trying doing that...But here are a few bullet points to try and simplfy. I will try to simplifyin the future.

- GoMex ULL is moving west at a good clip right now, porbably far enough west that the implications of it are waning for the moment right now.
- Any turn in path that would concern the Eastern Gulf (Florida and Alabama) would only occur in 48-60 hours (Between the Caymans and the Yucatan)...With an extreme unlikelihood of this ever happenning (I'd say 85% chance against is).
- Any turn toward the central gulf states would need to occur before 95 west. Also highly unlikely, but a little more possible that a turn in the eastern gulf.
- Excellent and ever persistant model agreement favors the western Gulf (Mexico and Texas), but there may still be some unanswered questions regarding the future of the Ridge and troughs in the mid latitudes...as well asthe ULL in the gulf and the Atlantic Ridge. Time will tell if the models really do have it right, but I think there are additional questions since the models seem to have an agreeable Hurricane forecast, yet have varying solutions for the mid latitude flow.

BottomLine: I am only rebellious slightly against the models becuase I expect there is still some small level of chance that Dean Could turn in 48+ hours. But the models have been going on toward the west for long enough that is is looking safer and safer for the eastern and central gulf at the moment. I hope this help to clear some things up, but you can PM me with questions if you would like.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 19 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weather999   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:33 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:19 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:58 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:57 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:51 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:40 AM
. * * Mean Dean twizted sizter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? WeatherNut   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:13 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:12 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SkyWarn536A   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:07 AM
. * * STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:49 AM
. * * Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:47 AM
. * * what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic vineyardsaker   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? louisianatracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? javlin   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? JustMe   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Ed in Va   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Sea temps lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Forum Rules Reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:08 AM
. * * Pressure down to 920 mb neospaceblue   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Bloodstar   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? belfast-jj   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues AmateurJohn   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? bobbutts   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Genesis   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weathernet   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues R2RICKSTER   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues RideTheLightning   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues pcola   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues mr jimmy   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:24 PM

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