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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean v. Louisiana?
      Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM

I've received a good question from one of our fellow posters...Thought I'd share the question and the response...

Question
I'm just curious....given that most/all people think there is ZERO chance of Dean turning within 48 hours... why do you rebel even slightly? I'm in the eastern gulf coast region... don't expect any impact from Dean at all, but I'm still watching it carefully because, well, it's a freak of nature if nothing else.

Response
I can answer that one...After you read, please take a look at my graphic, because it will give visual presentation. There is a ridge over the Baha Mexico Area that is trying to move west. The pacific trough has the Baha High basically stationary; even though it is pushing on the trough a bit....the base of the trough is to the west of it and is currently keeping it at bay. At the mid latitudes across the continental US, the jet stream, the ridges and the troughs are progressing along, but the southern extension of the jet stream over the pacific is causing the subtropical ridge over Mexico to stay put. I am concerned that this may...MAY cause a log jam in the subtropics and the upper level low over the gulf will eventually stall in the western gulf or over Texas/Mexico...If it stalls around 95 West, the flow in the eastern Gulf will be southerly and Dean will catch up to that (I only give it a 15% chance right now, and that may be very generous). Otherwise, there’s an upper low approaching Oregon and Northern California...It’s moving east and will pass above the ridge over Baha California. One of two things will happen here...More likely, it will curve toward to NE toward North Dakota and Minnesota. However, with the ridge in the middle states heading eastward and the Baha Ridge remaining stationary...it may have enough oomph to start a digging trough across Utah and Texas. That may have some interaction with the gulf ULL and draw it northward...Much like we are seeing with the ULL over the Atlantic that is being drawn up ahead of the jet stream trough off of the NE seaboard. That may increase a treat to the northern coast of TX and/or LA.

With that said...models are in decent agreement...and this is conjecture of some other unlikely possibilities...However, there is still a weak chance of changes and all should track Dean along the Gulf Coast

Edited by dem05 (Sun Aug 19 2007 04:39 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weather999   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:33 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:19 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:58 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:57 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:51 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:40 AM
. * * Mean Dean twizted sizter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? WeatherNut   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:13 AM
. * * Re: STORM SURGE GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:12 AM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SkyWarn536A   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:07 AM
. * * STORM SURGE lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:49 AM
. * * Re: what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:47 AM
. * * what's this other one in the mid-Atlantic vineyardsaker   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? louisianatracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? javlin   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? oil tracker   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? JustMe   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Ed in Va   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Sea temps lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Forum Rules Reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Recon is in there Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:08 AM
. * * Pressure down to 920 mb neospaceblue   Sun Aug 19 2007 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? OUSHAWN   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Thunderbird12   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Bloodstar   Sat Aug 18 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? belfast-jj   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues AmateurJohn   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? bobbutts   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 18 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Dean v. Louisiana? StPeteBill   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Dean v. Louisiana? weatherguy08   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Nathan   Sat Aug 18 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues SirCane   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Clark   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Genesis   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues weathernet   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues R2RICKSTER   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues scottsvb   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues RideTheLightning   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues pcola   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues Allison   Sat Aug 18 2007 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues mr jimmy   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean Continues dem05   Sat Aug 18 2007 03:24 PM

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