The models have diverged a bit this afternoon, mostly to the south, the NHC's forecast is actually a little north of most of the models now. Belize may have to watch out for Dean.
Dean is approaching South of Jamaica now, and already trees and power down are being reported in Jamaica,
Also a wave southeast of Barbados in the Atlantic may be worth watching soon for new development.
10AM EDT Aug 19 2007 Update
9AM EDT Aug 19 2007 Update
Just an update of movement/position.
Original Update Hurricane Dean remains a strong category 4 storm, still dealing with the change in eyewall structure this morning, but it still looks rather impressive on satellite, with a well defined eye.
Today is the day Jamaica will have to deal with Dean. The current forecast track takes the center just south of the island, but jogs either direction could take it closer or further away. (It appeared to jog north, thus closer, this morning)
Beyond Jamaica lies the Cayman Islands, which will be next near the path of Hurricane Dean. Conditions continue to suggest it moving generally westward and the National Hurricane Center's track is very reasonable. There is nothing, that i can see, right now that could change this general path.
This path would keep the system in Mexico and away from the United States, and the storm would have a bit of time over the Yucatan before it would emerge into the Bay of Campeche then hit the Central part of Mexico.
Do you have your own take on what Dean will do? Let us know here.
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