Quote: Looking at IR, it looks like the eye is quickly expanding in size to the 32NM eyewall. Take a look at the JSL view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html Two Eyewall Replacement Cycles (ERCs) in under 12 hours seems rather amazing. But it is over the warm eddy...so anything's possible.
It seems rather amazing that it is over the warm eddy, and yet, the only thing it has done is go through two ERCs, with no intensity changes inbetween (only slight weakening). Of course, the inflow could be disturbed by the land masses to the north, and the IR presentation does seem to indicate this may be the case. It will be a very close call with Jamaica. The eye is currently looking to go south of the island, but that would put them in the absolute worst conditions, getting the full brunt of the northern half of Dean as it goes by to the south, but likely causing the storm to at least maintain its intensity since the eye would remain over water.
The Jamaica radar site seems to be inoperable for the most part, or it would be providing some amazing images I think.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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