F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

dem05
User


Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica
      Sun Aug 19 2007 03:10 PM Attachment (295 downloads)

The anticipated evolution of the High pressure ridge, which has been expected for the last few days, seems to have occurred. As can be noted in the graphic (Image attachment) , the high pressure ridge that is forming over the SE US has become much better defined. Interestingly, the ULL over the Gulf of Mexico seems to have become better defined as well over the nighttime hours. However, with the high pressure ridge now anchored due to the north of Dean, the effects of the ULL are very minimal. I do not see any real reason to go against the model trends that have been very consistent over the last few days. In addition, yesterdays jet stream looked more (trough-ridge-trough)...today, it appears to evolved back into a zonal type flow. I'd rule out interactions with a jet stream trough now and say that the interactions/ movement of Dean will be based on interactions with subtropical and mid latitude systems.

There is no reason to believe that the ULL in the GoMex will stall now. In previous posts, I mentioned that the ULL would have to stall around 90 to maybe 95 W for there to be any Dean Impacts on the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I would say that in looking at the orientation of the ridge and the ULL...The long shot at Dean entering the Eastern Gulf will be virtually 0% if the ULL does not stall at 90W. That should happen this afternoon. I would say the central gulf will be 100% out of the woods if the ULL does not stall by 95W. Texas will still have to watch Dean (Especially southern Texas), but I would say the odds are going down there too. Overall, I would say that as of this moment...there is a 99% chance that Dean will have no affects in the eastern Gulf, 95% chance that Dean will not affect the Central Gulf, and probably a 75% chance that Dean will not affect Texas. I would expect those percentages to improve even more throughout the day.

Looks like the picture is really getting into focus now folks.

Edited by dem05 (Sun Aug 19 2007 04:06 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Approaches Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 19 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Post Linkage Problem Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 04:21 AM
. * * Re: RE: Dean's Bands twizted sizter   Mon Aug 20 2007 04:18 AM
. * * Re: RE: Dean's Bands Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 04:14 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms twizted sizter   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:46 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms scottsvb   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:21 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:14 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:10 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Nathan   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Mike N   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:15 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:02 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms Tropics Guy   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica weathernet   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:46 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms JustMe   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:27 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms JustMe   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:25 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Texas Cane Tracker   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica flahurricane   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:09 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Ronn   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica wxman007   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:59 AM
. * * Re: FL Storms nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:58 AM
. * * FL Storms danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Weird Blue thing StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Weird Blue thing Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Weird Blue thing StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica qtpa2ts   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Weird Blue thing BillD   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Weird Blue thing Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Allison   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:23 AM
. * * Weird Blue thing danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica weathernet   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica craigm   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica StrmTrckrMiami   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica qtpa2ts   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica weathernet   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica madmumbler   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica weathernet   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica cieldumort   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica flahurricane   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 19 2007 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica anomaly18   Sun Aug 19 2007 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica LoisCane   Sun Aug 19 2007 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica WeatherNLU   Sun Aug 19 2007 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica LoisCane   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica LoisCane   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica WeatherNLU   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Wave CMC modeled rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica WeatherNLU   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Cash   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica KC   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica LoisCane   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica WeatherNLU   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:09 PM
. * * Re: current Kingston weather Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:05 PM
. * * current Kingston weather lunkerhunter   Sun Aug 19 2007 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica anomaly18   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica BillD   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica anomaly18   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Nathan   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica OUSHAWN   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Clark   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica dem05   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Nathan   Sun Aug 19 2007 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica weather999   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Hugh   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 19 2007 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Lee-Delray   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Ed in Va   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Random Chaos   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaches Jamaica Rich B   Sun Aug 19 2007 01:09 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 22 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 39935

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center