The anticipated evolution of the High pressure ridge, which has been expected for the last few days, seems to have occurred. As can be noted in the graphic (Image attachment) , the high pressure ridge that is forming over the SE US has become much better defined. Interestingly, the ULL over the Gulf of Mexico seems to have become better defined as well over the nighttime hours. However, with the high pressure ridge now anchored due to the north of Dean, the effects of the ULL are very minimal. I do not see any real reason to go against the model trends that have been very consistent over the last few days. In addition, yesterdays jet stream looked more (trough-ridge-trough)...today, it appears to evolved back into a zonal type flow. I'd rule out interactions with a jet stream trough now and say that the interactions/ movement of Dean will be based on interactions with subtropical and mid latitude systems.
There is no reason to believe that the ULL in the GoMex will stall now. In previous posts, I mentioned that the ULL would have to stall around 90 to maybe 95 W for there to be any Dean Impacts on the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I would say that in looking at the orientation of the ridge and the ULL...The long shot at Dean entering the Eastern Gulf will be virtually 0% if the ULL does not stall at 90W. That should happen this afternoon. I would say the central gulf will be 100% out of the woods if the ULL does not stall by 95W. Texas will still have to watch Dean (Especially southern Texas), but I would say the odds are going down there too. Overall, I would say that as of this moment...there is a 99% chance that Dean will have no affects in the eastern Gulf, 95% chance that Dean will not affect the Central Gulf, and probably a 75% chance that Dean will not affect Texas. I would expect those percentages to improve even more throughout the day.
Looks like the picture is really getting into focus now folks.
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