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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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dem05
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Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dean vortex
      Mon Aug 20 2007 11:41 PM

I notice Dean is pretty well covered here...so I really don't have much to add outside of the fact that my points of late last night/ very early thismorning did not pan out....To the relief of the US and with great regret to our Mexican neighbors, it's a bad situation abd I wish them well. Otherwise, I learned some tropical weather lessons (Somethe hard way) via Hurricane Dean, but in the end, what make this site great is that we all share ideas and we all DO learn from one another.

Not as much talk about 92L tonight for very obvious reasons. From my end, it is a little tough to forecast anything...including development with out a bit more organization. I give it a 30-40% shot now...which is down from this morning, where I was starting to feel that something might be a bit better organized by now. That said, I am only basing that on the current organization, and the model support, which is basically showing a wave passage over Florida on the GFS and UKMet from this...and the CMC seems to have backed off of this somewhat.

Outside of this, I'll share what I do see.

On the Vapor loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html ), it does look like 92L will remain in a reatively moist environment...As moisture is spreading westward along with 92L, which is north of the ULL. Otherwise, 92Lmay still be too close to the ULL that is over the Puerto Rico...and it may stay too close for too long...Not sure yet.

On the shortwave loop (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html ) , any circulation at the mid levels and/or possible vorticity at the lower levels may be further to the west than Iinitially thought...I'd pegthat area to be around 25N, 65W.

Only time will tell if this will become Felix as it approaches from the east.

Edited by dem05 (Mon Aug 20 2007 11:42 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 20 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:01 AM
. * * Re: Dean Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 21 2007 05:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean WeatherNLU   Tue Aug 21 2007 05:24 AM
. * * Re: Dean Valandil   Tue Aug 21 2007 05:16 AM
. * * Re: oh man... neospaceblue   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Re: oh man... dem05   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Recon Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:08 AM
. * * oh man... Doombot!   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Dean dem05   Tue Aug 21 2007 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas cieldumort   Tue Aug 21 2007 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Dean StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 21 2007 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:38 AM
. * * Re: Dean Jorge Nakazawa   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Recon Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:11 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:06 AM
. * * Re: Dean Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:51 PM
. * * Dean danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex dem05   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? lunkerhunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? Jorge Nakazawa   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:37 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? lunkerhunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:29 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:28 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? Thunderbird12   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:12 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? Jorge Nakazawa   Mon Aug 20 2007 10:22 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? ChessieStorm   Mon Aug 20 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas txcntrygrl   Mon Aug 20 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:56 PM
. * * Re: where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? lunkerhunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:44 PM
. * * Dean Statistics neospaceblue   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:44 PM
. * * where are the Yucatan radio/TV/media links? vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Dean's numbers lunkerhunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex weather999   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:24 PM
. * * Dean's numbers WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex anomaly18   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex lunkerhunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Psyber   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex lunkerhunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Hugh   Mon Aug 20 2007 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex charlottefl   Mon Aug 20 2007 06:15 PM
. * * Re: New System 92L CDMOrlando   Mon Aug 20 2007 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex DougBaker   Mon Aug 20 2007 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean vortex Psyber   Mon Aug 20 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Dean vortex neospaceblue   Mon Aug 20 2007 04:15 PM
. * * Re: New System Old Sailor   Mon Aug 20 2007 04:10 PM
. * * Re: New System craigm   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: New System danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: New System Clark   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: New System danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West scottsvb   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West LisaC   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Psyber   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West LoisCane   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Jorge Nakazawa   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:41 AM
. * * New System danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Psyber   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:26 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas Scott3294   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West weather999   Mon Aug 20 2007 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Dean Headed to Yucatan, Watching System East of Bahamas lawgator   Mon Aug 20 2007 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Gulf ULL Psyber   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 20 2007 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West madmumbler   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West flanewscameraman   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:16 AM
. * * Gulf ULL lunkerhunter   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West flanewscameraman   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 20 2007 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West cieldumort   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:56 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West dem05   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 20 2007 02:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West oil tracker   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West cieldumort   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West BTfromAZ   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West dem05   Mon Aug 20 2007 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Dean Past Jamaica, Still Moving West Random Chaos   Mon Aug 20 2007 12:21 AM

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