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92L East of the Bahamas up to 50% chance for development. NE Florida and Georgia should watch closely. Area behind Alberto up to 60% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Idalia) , Major: 295 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 295 (Idalia) Major: 295 (Idalia)
Rem Alberto
ADV#13 10:00 pm EDT
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane
      Tue Aug 21 2007 09:59 PM

The dropsonde data suggested somewhat higher winds, while the onboard SFMR suggested lower winds (I don't think it showed anything above 123 kts). With that conflicting information, it seems like they just went with the standard 10% reduction from 700 mb for the final wind estimate.

The dropsonde data is not necessarily representative. As Random Chaos alluded to above, the dropsonde may report very high winds if it gets caught in some sort of meso-vortex which are not representative of the system as a whole. In one of the monster hurricanes of the last few years (I can't remember which off of the top of my head), I remember seeing a dropsonde wind observation of over 200 kts. The other dropsondes into the northern eyewall of Dean late last night (looks like there were 5 total) did not show anything higher than 136 kts in the lowest 150m.

Determining the maximum sustained winds of a hurricane is a very tricky business and probably something that is not done very accurately, even in this advanced age.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 21 2007 09:59 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run dem05   Wed Aug 22 2007 07:25 AM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run DougBaker   Wed Aug 22 2007 05:20 AM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run scottsvb   Wed Aug 22 2007 02:59 AM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 21 2007 11:16 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Hugh   Tue Aug 21 2007 11:03 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Addicted2Cane   Tue Aug 21 2007 10:34 PM
. * * dean's terminal run HanKFranK   Tue Aug 21 2007 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 21 2007 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Raymond   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:24 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane syfr   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane weather999   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? Hootowl   Tue Aug 21 2007 04:12 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 21 2007 04:12 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 21 2007 04:04 PM
. * * 92L gone? weatherguy08   Tue Aug 21 2007 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Jorge Nakazawa   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Psyber   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Raymond   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane pcola   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 11:15 AM

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