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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane
      Tue Aug 21 2007 06:03 PM

Quote:

Thank you, Clark!
But it says, that´s avaraged over the lowest 150 m and so it´isn´t at 150 m. So I would say you have to reduce around the half of he 20-25%, i.e. roughly 12%. That would give something like 156 kt.
Ok, whatever it had been, it had been horribly high!



Yeah, it was averaged in the lowest 150 meters, though I would still tend to think that there were a fair number of data points closer to 150 m skewing things than not. The points made below your post and above this one hit it on the head, however.

As for the storm Thunderbird is getting at -- I believe it's Isabel from 2003.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 21 2007 06:03 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run dem05   Wed Aug 22 2007 03:25 AM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run DougBaker   Wed Aug 22 2007 01:20 AM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run scottsvb   Tue Aug 21 2007 10:59 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:16 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Hugh   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:03 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Addicted2Cane   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:34 PM
. * * dean's terminal run HanKFranK   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 21 2007 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Raymond   Tue Aug 21 2007 04:24 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane syfr   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane weather999   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? Hootowl   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:04 PM
. * * 92L gone? weatherguy08   Tue Aug 21 2007 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Jorge Nakazawa   Tue Aug 21 2007 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Psyber   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Raymond   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane pcola   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:15 AM

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