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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
dean's terminal run
      Tue Aug 21 2007 06:17 PM

dean will end up with around 20 hours over water for it's stretch over the bay of campeche. the inner core looks about as bad as that of dennis of 2005 after it's crossing of cuba... i'd expect the cat 1 rating is on and that it can probably come back up to a 3 before it goes in again, if the recovery starts tonight. some of the modeling is showing the upper system getting over to the pacific and spawning a weak surface system that meanders into the gulf of california.. not terribly likely, but occasionally one of these systems will get over and kick off a pacific system (iris 2001, gert 1993). these systems don't tend to do well.
92L isn't improving any. some of the basic features that will allow it to persist and provide a minor menace to the east coast of florida are unchanged, but it really doesn't have much going for it. the upper low to the south is rending whatever convergence is going on at the southern end, and it doesn't have a great deal of convection to work with. none of the modeling likes it either (gfs has gotten suspiciously quiet, and none of the others seem to like it anymore). considering the time of year i wouldn't be surprised if 92L keeps plodding on until it finds a niche, or if something else starts brewing. tis the season.
ridging persists in the eastern united states and that general pattern keeps trying to hold in most of the medium to long range modeling. when trouble comes, the pattern we've been seeing in august will tend to push it towards land... unless the weak trough in the central atlantic becomes more robust.
HF 2217z21august

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 21 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run dem05   Wed Aug 22 2007 03:25 AM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run DougBaker   Wed Aug 22 2007 01:20 AM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run scottsvb   Tue Aug 21 2007 10:59 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:16 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Hugh   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:03 PM
. * * Re: dean's terminal run Addicted2Cane   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:34 PM
. * * dean's terminal run HanKFranK   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 21 2007 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Raymond   Tue Aug 21 2007 04:24 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Clark   Tue Aug 21 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane syfr   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane weather999   Tue Aug 21 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? Hootowl   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:12 PM
. * * Re: 92L gone? GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 21 2007 12:04 PM
. * * 92L gone? weatherguy08   Tue Aug 21 2007 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Jorge Nakazawa   Tue Aug 21 2007 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Psyber   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Raymond   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane pcola   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 21 2007 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Makes Landfall in Mexico as a Category 5 Hurricane Random Chaos   Tue Aug 21 2007 07:15 AM

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