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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
dean out, quiet in
      Wed Aug 22 2007 05:51 PM

a couple more advisories on dean and that should be that. the 03z advisory ought to be the last. dean is most likely too weak for a pacific side reflection to have much of a chance.
away east the upper trough enhanced showers around a weak surface trough continue as 92L. the low level vortmax is now a tad east of eleuthra island in the bahamas, nudging west a tad slower than the upper features around it. there still doesn't seem to be enough low level convergence to force it in the face of the shear aloft. like the nhc says, probably just an enhancement of showers... unless something dramatic happens.
nothing of note to the east of that. itcz is active but nothing of note is on it. emerging wave looks ok but models are skittish with it. some globals show a cut off northeast of bermuda around the weekend into next week. that appears to have as much a chance as anything in the basin for the meanwhile, barring any major deviation from the model consensus.
nhc played the guidance split down the middle with dean into the caribbean, until it starting grouping tight on the left... in which case they went wholeheartedly with it. that was the right move. i kept thinking the upper evolution was too quick and that dean would snag a bit on the upper low ahead of it, but they stayed perfectly in tandem and the hurricane barely passed 20N during it's lifetime. there was climatological precedent for that turn of events. like always i'm a bit too ready to buy into the worse scenarios... dean was strong as hell but it didn't directly hit any place where there was a great deal to break.
HF 2151z22august

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dean Approaching For Second Landfall MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 22 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: little guy Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 24 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: little guy ChessieStorm   Fri Aug 24 2007 10:45 PM
. * * Re: little guy flahurricane   Fri Aug 24 2007 09:30 PM
. * * Re: little guy Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 24 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: little guy Ed in Va   Fri Aug 24 2007 01:04 PM
. * * little guy HanKFranK   Fri Aug 24 2007 07:08 AM
. * * High Pressure charlottefl   Fri Aug 24 2007 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall h2ocean   Thu Aug 23 2007 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall Random Chaos   Thu Aug 23 2007 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall LisaC   Thu Aug 23 2007 08:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall UKCloudgazer   Wed Aug 22 2007 06:47 PM
. * * dean out, quiet in HanKFranK   Wed Aug 22 2007 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall Tak   Wed Aug 22 2007 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall B_from_NC   Wed Aug 22 2007 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 22 2007 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall bigbelly   Wed Aug 22 2007 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 22 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall LisaC   Wed Aug 22 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall rammerjammer   Wed Aug 22 2007 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall Addicted2Cane   Wed Aug 22 2007 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall cchsweatherman   Wed Aug 22 2007 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall Ed G   Wed Aug 22 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall allan   Wed Aug 22 2007 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 22 2007 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall Wxwatcher2   Wed Aug 22 2007 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Dean Approaching For Second Landfall allan   Wed Aug 22 2007 11:17 AM

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