dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Re: Tropics Acting Up Again
Wed Aug 29 2007 12:42 AM
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EDIT: While I was prepping the post, Cieldmort was already posting some of this info...Sorry for the duplication!!! Looks like we are sharing some of the same ideas!  )
Well...the Western Carrib. disturbance is now an unassigned Invest. That is, no invest number yet, but a floater invest has been placed on it.
Overall, the picture with this invest is different that what happened during Dean. Besides Dean being a hurricane, there are several differences at the mid and upper levels. Wouldn't rule out development just yet, and I wouldn't rule out Cieldmort's thoughts in the previous thread. However, I am not ready tocall for development or movement of this disturbed area...I'd rather outline some things to watch:
- First, on the last visible images, there is no evidence of a surface circulation. Please note the clouds moving off to the west over the Yucatan.
- Second, thunderstorm consolidation...With the tradewinds seeming tomove through at a decent clip from east to west, I'd suspect that any developments would have to originate at the mid levels...and be transferred to the surface. There is good thunderstorm clustering tonight...We will have to see if this "blob" is "go weapons hot for a diurnal thunderstorm maximum". If so...and if the thunderstorms last through the day...and mid level vorticity at the 500mb level or so exists... it will have a shot at slowly working toward the surface.
-Third, The upper level low as seen on the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Loops...
Western Atlantic Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
GoMex Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
If you watch these loops, I believe you will see the ULL over the Yucatan is dissapating...but it is being replaced by a new ULL over the East-Central Gomex. Interesting...It is propogating westward slowly, but unlike Dean, It isdue north of this disturbance...Justsomething else to watch...Mean time, Upper Level conditions could become more favorable. Also, the ULL may influence a more NWerly heading,
- Fourth...Models did not handle this evolution well...They do not see a new ULL low forming in the Gulf as I can see. Also, at this point, most 12Z models showed the main vorticity over Nicaragua/Hondoras...As you can see, this is not so.
- Fifth and finally...a wild card against development is another unassigned invest that is taking shape and was assigned a floater at the same time...It is south of Guatemala on the Pacific Side. If it develops...it is in close enough real estate to say that the disturbance in the western carribean will not develop...So this is something to watch too...It actually looks like it has better odds and that would put an end toany concerns in the Gulf or Western Carribean Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html
Edited by dem05 (Wed Aug 29 2007 12:49 AM)
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