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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ready
      Wed Aug 29 2007 02:18 AM

o-k. three things looking good tonight.
they're all well outlined so far... i'll just toss some ideas and see what happens.
94L--that's a storm. it's not developing quickly or anything, but it will be. don't buy much into the guidance as there will likely be more storm there than indicated... but based on its location contact with the caribbean is highly possible. upstream developments will determine it's future track. it's going to have to fight with dry air, but should win out after a bit.
western caribbean--doesn't want to follow the rules. i thought the nhc take of land interaction was sure fire, but the models taking it on a near shore trajectory turned out to be on the ball. possible that high level shear is helping whatever mid-level vorticity is there to translate north, and seems to be providing more ventilation than damage. belize is in the way, though. if it keeps its track more wnw it will cross more ocean in the BoC and possibly succeed where the low that invaded mexico yesterday failed--whatever is at the surface will travel over land and likely allow the upper circulation to become better defined... and take right off when it goes over water.
off the carolinas--didn't see that coming. more shortwave energy got left behind than projected by most models, on a more southerly trajectory. it's going to be stuck in a col and probably move erratically late this week. a shortwave should clip by around weekend time, but it's unclear if this will shunt it off. could just nudge it west then let the ridge grab it again. thing i'm not seeing is how it will shape the environment. this sucker looks like it will develop. it is going to modify the nearby upper features, and lay the groundwork for whatever 94L is to do it's thing.
all three systems can develop. the wave coming off also has some potential. ought to be something out there tomorrow, and probably at least two somethings on thursday.
HF 0218z29august

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropics Acting Up Again MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 29 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cchsweatherman   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Enter Felix, Stage Right Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:22 PM
. * * Enter Felix, Stage Right CoconutCandy   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:19 PM
. * * Atlantic Activity charlottefl   Fri Aug 31 2007 04:43 AM
. * * Re: surprise surprise danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 31 2007 03:32 AM
. * * Re: surprise surprise cieldumort   Fri Aug 31 2007 02:45 AM
. * * surprise surprise HanKFranK   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again allan   Thu Aug 30 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Thu Aug 30 2007 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 30 2007 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again scottsvb   Thu Aug 30 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cieldumort   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 30 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Hugh   Thu Aug 30 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again madmumbler   Thu Aug 30 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed in Va   Wed Aug 29 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again ElizabethH   Wed Aug 29 2007 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again NewWatcher01   Wed Aug 29 2007 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Wingman51   Wed Aug 29 2007 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again hurricane80   Wed Aug 29 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: ready Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 03:26 PM
. * * Re: ready Ed in Va   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:20 PM
. * * Re: ready doug   Wed Aug 29 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Re: ready Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:49 AM
. * * Re: ready Hugh   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Re: ready Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:34 AM
. * * ready HanKFranK   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again dem05   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cieldumort   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:27 AM

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