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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: ready
      Wed Aug 29 2007 02:49 AM

A few comments, largely restating a lot of what HF had to say with a bunch of different words (hey, it was good stuff, and I can go with that!)...

94L: it may well be a storm, but it's embedded in one of the strongest SAL outbreaks of late right now. Low-latitude runner for now; let's see what happens once it gets to the Caribbean and the dust has had a chance to settle and/or mix out.

Carib disturbance: kinda reminds me of some of those pesky disturbances of 2005 that ended up spawning Bret, Gert, and Jose (among others). If it follows a similar trajectory, it's not out of the realm that it does something similar to that.

Carolinas disturbance: starting to get to that time of year where frontal boundaries make it far enough south to get interesting when they stall out over the Gulf Stream. It's already got a better-defined feature about which convection can develop and a system can be born as compared to the last case we had of this (northeast Gulf). Plugging my own WRF model for a second, it did suggest this morning that this will linger around for the next three days and slowly develop. Like the Caribbean disturbance, not out of the realm of possibility.

Wave train: two features of note, one due south of the Cape Verdes and another due east of them along the coast of Africa. SSTs are still below normal out there but at or above typical thresholds; it's the vertical instability associated with the strong ridge out there that is now the main problem. The models (GFS and ECMWF) are starting to get that 'look' to them, developing multiple features out that way over the next two weeks. Climo would argue for that alone, but so would the overriding atmospheric conditions.

The wave coming off the coast is probably too far north, though it does have a nice reflection about 12N/10W; the one south of the Cape Verdes will probably follow a similar path to 94L albeit without as much dust to contend with. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of these two eventually develop, with attention then turning to another wave about 14N/10E late in the week.

All of the atmospheric features that we'd normally want to see for a sustained active period in the tropics -- particularly in the deep tropics -- are starting to come together. I agree with HF's comment of "something" being out there tomorrow and possibly two "somethings" by Thursday and will go a step further to suggest a third "something" by Labor Day. Whether these somethings are more like the most recent 99L and don't really get going or if they end up being classified tropical systems, well... I'll leave that guessing game to everyone else.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropics Acting Up Again MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 29 2007 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cchsweatherman   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Enter Felix, Stage Right Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:22 PM
. * * Enter Felix, Stage Right CoconutCandy   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:19 PM
. * * Atlantic Activity charlottefl   Fri Aug 31 2007 04:43 AM
. * * Re: surprise surprise danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 31 2007 03:32 AM
. * * Re: surprise surprise cieldumort   Fri Aug 31 2007 02:45 AM
. * * surprise surprise HanKFranK   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again allan   Thu Aug 30 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Thu Aug 30 2007 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 30 2007 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again scottsvb   Thu Aug 30 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cieldumort   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 30 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Hugh   Thu Aug 30 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again madmumbler   Thu Aug 30 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed in Va   Wed Aug 29 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again ElizabethH   Wed Aug 29 2007 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again NewWatcher01   Wed Aug 29 2007 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Wingman51   Wed Aug 29 2007 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again hurricane80   Wed Aug 29 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: ready Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 03:26 PM
. * * Re: ready Ed in Va   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:20 PM
. * * Re: ready doug   Wed Aug 29 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Re: ready Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:49 AM
. * * Re: ready Hugh   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Re: ready Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:34 AM
. * * ready HanKFranK   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again dem05   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cieldumort   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:27 AM

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