cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropics Acting Up Again
Thu Aug 30 2007 11:45 AM
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96L to the ne of 95L (talking about the two Gulf Stream lows for those wanting reference) has, imho, had the upper-hand for the better part of the last 24 hours, of the two, and I was admittedly surprised that there was not a separate invest tag on it - so kudos, I suppose. Clearly, its presence so close to 95L has been hampering 95s development. This is probably a situation not terribly unlike the unnamed tropical storm of 2006 and Beryl, with the exception that 95L continues to drift S-SE, and has been weakening.
For all practical purposes 96L is almost there, already. Recent scatterometer images strongly suggest that the surface low is now just about nuzzled back under its deeper convection. 95L is probably not going to be too far behind, but only provided it can begin taking up the favorable conditions 96L has somewhat robbed from it, so far.
94L clearly is freeing itself from the tight grips of all of that SAL which has been inhibiting development, and now has a fairly well-defined convective coc. Probably not fully back down to the surface, as it degenerated into an open wave at the surface yesterday, after having had a surface low prior days.
97L in the BOC is running out of time (ocean) unless it can begin taking a more northwesterly course, again, but this seems to have ended in much the same way (interestingly) that it did so for Dean ... generally WNW and then about due west until landfall. Unless it slows down a great deal, stalls, or begins moving NW, the best it can probably achieve is minimal TS, and that might be generous. Regardless, it is guaranteed to be a prolific rain-maker... and apparently over more yet more areas that simply do not need any more prolific rains.
In summation, given current trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TCFA issued today for 94L & 96L, and to lesser chances 97L & 95L. As for bugging mainland U.S., I think we should be watching 94L & 95L the most. 96 will likely continue on its merry way out to sea, and 97 is hugging old Mexico.
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