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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2307
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropics Acting Up Again
      Thu Aug 30 2007 03:45 PM

96L to the ne of 95L (talking about the two Gulf Stream lows for those wanting reference) has, imho, had the upper-hand for the better part of the last 24 hours, of the two, and I was admittedly surprised that there was not a separate invest tag on it - so kudos, I suppose. Clearly, its presence so close to 95L has been hampering 95s development. This is probably a situation not terribly unlike the unnamed tropical storm of 2006 and Beryl, with the exception that 95L continues to drift S-SE, and has been weakening.

For all practical purposes 96L is almost there, already. Recent scatterometer images strongly suggest that the surface low is now just about nuzzled back under its deeper convection. 95L is probably not going to be too far behind, but only provided it can begin taking up the favorable conditions 96L has somewhat robbed from it, so far.

94L clearly is freeing itself from the tight grips of all of that SAL which has been inhibiting development, and now has a fairly well-defined convective coc. Probably not fully back down to the surface, as it degenerated into an open wave at the surface yesterday, after having had a surface low prior days.

97L in the BOC is running out of time (ocean) unless it can begin taking a more northwesterly course, again, but this seems to have ended in much the same way (interestingly) that it did so for Dean ... generally WNW and then about due west until landfall. Unless it slows down a great deal, stalls, or begins moving NW, the best it can probably achieve is minimal TS, and that might be generous. Regardless, it is guaranteed to be a prolific rain-maker... and apparently over more yet more areas that simply do not need any more prolific rains.

In summation, given current trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TCFA issued today for 94L & 96L, and to lesser chances 97L & 95L. As for bugging mainland U.S., I think we should be watching 94L & 95L the most. 96 will likely continue on its merry way out to sea, and 97 is hugging old Mexico.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropics Acting Up Again MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 30 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cchsweatherman   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Enter Felix, Stage Right Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:22 PM
. * * Enter Felix, Stage Right CoconutCandy   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:19 PM
. * * Atlantic Activity charlottefl   Fri Aug 31 2007 04:43 AM
. * * Re: surprise surprise danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 31 2007 03:32 AM
. * * Re: surprise surprise cieldumort   Fri Aug 31 2007 02:45 AM
. * * surprise surprise HanKFranK   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again allan   Thu Aug 30 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Thu Aug 30 2007 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 30 2007 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again scottsvb   Thu Aug 30 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cieldumort   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 30 2007 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 30 2007 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again doug   Thu Aug 30 2007 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Hugh   Thu Aug 30 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again madmumbler   Thu Aug 30 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed in Va   Wed Aug 29 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again ElizabethH   Wed Aug 29 2007 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again NewWatcher01   Wed Aug 29 2007 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Wingman51   Wed Aug 29 2007 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again hurricane80   Wed Aug 29 2007 05:26 PM
. * * Re: ready Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 03:26 PM
. * * Re: ready Ed in Va   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:20 PM
. * * Re: ready doug   Wed Aug 29 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Re: ready Clark   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:49 AM
. * * Re: ready Hugh   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Re: ready Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:34 AM
. * * ready HanKFranK   Wed Aug 29 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 29 2007 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again dem05   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again cieldumort   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropics Acting Up Again mar32366   Wed Aug 29 2007 12:27 AM

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