CoconutCandy
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Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Enter Felix, Stage Right
Fri Aug 31 2007 08:19 AM
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Well, it certainly is beginning to look like the Hurricane Hunters will find a closed off low level center, with steadily lowering surface pressures. This one has TD and Storm written all over it.
It seems likely, IMHO, that there is no turning back now. While you've all slept overnight, I've been watching this little invest mushroom into something more than just a 'little invest'. (Remember, I am 6 hours behind Florida time)
Judging from the greatly increased aerial coverage and the intensity of convection, I'd hazard that surface pressures are beginning to lower. This is also evidenced by carefully observing the low-level inflow patterns. One can see a nicely defined cyclonic circulation, with long cumulus streets spiraling inward in all quadrants, and, where convection had been 'lacking/slacking' earlier in the E semi-circle previously, there are now several, short banding features blossoming out indicating a steady increase in organization, when all the convection works together to lower surface pressures, which in turn steadily increases the winds.
But of course, you all know this already. It's just always interesting, from a weather hobbyist perspective, to see it happening right before your eyes, time and again. Let's hear it for animated time-lapse satellite loops! 
Additionally, there is also developing a central dense overcast CDO-like feature over the inner core convection, which usually bids well for an intensification surge.
Of all the current invests floating around, I'd place my bets, as has almost everyone it seems, on 94L to become TS Felix in the not-too-distant future. The TCFA has been out for some time now, the thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly favorable and the 'negative' factors seem to be dwindling.
It'll be interesting to see what the Recon mission will reveal with regard to thermodynamic structure and wind fields.
And it'll be interesting, too, to see what becomes of the 'alleged' FAMCG (Far Atlantic Monsoon Cyclonic Gyre  ), currently cycling within a large area SW of the Cape Verde, in the coming days and possibly weeks as it seems that the gyre might be setting up shop there for awhile.
The latest tropical weather discussion (2am EDT, as I write) indicates " ...BROAD ELONGATED LOW / MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 25W-36W WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.", which would be entirely consistent with the behavior of a monsoon cyclonic gyre, as discussed in the "Hurricane Ask/Tell" Forum. Pretty interesting stuff. Well worth a look.
Hold onto your hats and batten down the hatches, as it appears that "Ferocious Felix" will be the start to a quick succession of storms in the coming weeks, in a still yet predicted 'above average' total number of storms for the season. 
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