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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist

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Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.

Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean
Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM

The post on the home page as well as some of the model runs are saying that 94L/TD6/Felix is to continue a generally westwards track. I have to disagree with this somewhat after looking at the 700 - 850 MB Steering Layer Map from CIMSS. The map shows a strong ridge in place, centered east of Bermuda, extending as far west as midway between Bermuda and the East Coast. Also, the southwestern corner of the high has very fast steering currents which lie just ahead of the system. Should it enter this area, we could see a brief, but rapid and significant northward jog of the system. If this occurs, the two major scenarios I could see would be for the system to go out to sea or possibly affect Florida and The Bahamas. Also, the Gulf Coast may have to watch this system in the future as the National Weather Services offices in Houston, Lake Charles, Slidell, and Mobile are all forecasting a retrograding trough over the northern GOM to spawn an upper-level low over central Texas which would move northeastwards causing a breakdown of the high pressure over the area.

In summary, everyone along the United States coast should watch this storm (check daily updates for now). As for the models, I do not put a whole lot of stock in them at this point as it is early and the storm has not become established yet. Also, Recon data that is inserted into the models can cause a massive impact on model guidance as we saw with Hurricane Dean.

Link to Steering Layer Map: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Edit:

Almost forgot! This map from the HPC shows a low pressure and trough over the north-central United States which is forecast to help the breakdown in the ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS late next week.

Link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

Edited by weatherguy08 (Fri Aug 31 2007 10:38 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	MikeC	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM
Enter Felix, Stage Right	CoconutCandy	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 05:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:02 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	scottsvb	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	flahurricane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
down deep	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:08 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	StrmTrckrMiami	Fri Aug 31 2007 07:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rabbit	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Climate Aficionado	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rich B	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	NewWatcher01	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	audienceofone	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:43 PM
flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:27 AM
Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:18 AM

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