F

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

None

HypeScale: 0.25

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

National Hurricane Center

You are not logged in. [Login]

Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

Reged:
Posts: 576

Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean
Fri Aug 31 2007 06:50 PM

I will be quite surprised if this is not a depression in the 5pm and it may develop substantially overnight tonight.

The last 3 frames here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html Clearly show an accelerating cyclonic torque centered very close to 11.5N/58W -- of course this may vary from official.

Rapid improvement in sat presentation has commenced.

Deep layer wind analysis shows very little shear. As the convection potency has increased the transfer of mass to the upper levels, that injection enhances the outlfow in an already fairly favorable 200mb to begin with.. This means that the system has an above average evacuation being established. (There is also a thermodynamic process involved in the latent heat release of convection but that may be over folk's heads).

Oceanic heat content is quite high where 94L is and will only increase along its extrapolated path. There was some question of turbulent overturning left in the wake of Dean, but given to the depthy thermoclines of the Caribbean, and observing SSTs, this does not seem to be a problem.

The dry air that was likely contributory in preventing more robust development heretofore is still prevalent. However, belated but not denied is the key here... The dry air can be overcome given time via storm-centric production of increasing theta-e (moisture in atmosphere). In other words, the developing TC is producing a bit of its own core from which to fester within.

The reason there is only a vague presentation in the models may have to do with the models trying to initialize for a pressure perturbation that is all of 2mb lower than standard sea-level; and also relative to the ambient observed pressures in that area. As the system develops further, however, eventually the models will sniff out its presents more clearly and we will likely see some different solutions emanating rather abruptly. Fwiw, the ECM's 12z solution is a bit more robust now after having lost it for several runs, so perhaps we are beginning this process now.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Aug 31 2007 06:53 PM)

Post Extras

Print Post

Remind Me!

Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	MikeC	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:50 PM
Enter Felix, Stage Right	CoconutCandy	Sat Sep 01 2007 10:40 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 09:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 08:02 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 07:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 07:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 07:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	scottsvb	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	flahurricane	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:57 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:54 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:39 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:36 AM
down deep	HanKFranK	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:33 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:18 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:08 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:57 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:45 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:13 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 01:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 01:28 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 01:16 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	StrmTrckrMiami	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rabbit	Fri Aug 31 2007 07:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Climate Aficionado	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rich B	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	NewWatcher01	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	audienceofone	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:43 PM
flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:46 PM
Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:46 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:27 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:52 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:27 PM
Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM

Extra information

0 registered and 45 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:

Thread views: 17863

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center