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The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
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Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean
      Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM

Rather than speculating, let's do the Meteorology:

At 8:00pm, Barbados was reporting a sea-level pressure of 1010.7mbs

At 8:05pm, NHC reported a TD depth of 1008mbs, at about precisely 60 nautical miles due south of Barbados at that time.

Since NHC does not include decimal values in their depth assessments, I will go ahead and round the 1010.7mb to 1011mb for consistent units.

Ed wants to give 15mph-worth of the 32mph, back to background trade wind phenomenon, which actually is an assumption because even though trades consistently blow, they do not do so at the same velocity relative to pressure patterns. In reality, we don't know what the trade forcing into the system was as of 8pm, but for sake of discussion, we'll just assume it was 15mph-worth. That means that 17mph-worth of velocity is hypothetically storm generated.

Now, the pressure differential between Barbados and TD6 as of 8pm was ~ 4mbs. There is a general rule that works to a very close approximation: 1mb nearly = 1kt. 4mbs thus equates to 4kts.

So, immediately there is a discrepancy here. If 4mb = 4kts, 4kts certaindly does NOT atone for 17mph, considering that 1mile is 0.864 knots. That means the 4.62mph...or essentially 5mph, sticks us with an unexplained 12mph using this method. Something is adding into this to cause the +12mph

One possible explanation for this disparity is that the trade wind forcing at this time is actually stronger than usual, and thus, Ed has a very strong point: The correction may go the other way and we may yet still have a depression. In other words, even though climate argues for 15mph of trades, we may in fact have (15mph-trade) + (12mph-trade-anonamaly) to consider.

The other possible explanation is that they are wrong about the 1008mb of pressure. They do not directly specify in the 8:05 discussion whether that is based on the last RECON trip or not.

Either way, the available evidence does tend to support Ed's point of view on this.

The other thing to remember is to look at ALL the data, not just these pretty colored sat videos. Seeing as this is about to cross the axis of the Islands, we should know in a hurry if one of these islands happens through an inflow jet that is 40mph or not.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Aug 31 2007 10:49 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM
. * * Enter Felix, Stage Right CoconutCandy   Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean dem05   Sat Sep 01 2007 05:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 01 2007 04:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean dem05   Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 01 2007 03:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean dem05   Sat Sep 01 2007 03:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean scottsvb   Sat Sep 01 2007 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean dem05   Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Sat Sep 01 2007 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean dem05   Sat Sep 01 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Sat Sep 01 2007 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Sat Sep 01 2007 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean flahurricane   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean dem05   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
. * * down deep HanKFranK   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 31 2007 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 31 2007 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 31 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 31 2007 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean LoisCane   Fri Aug 31 2007 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean HCW   Fri Aug 31 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Rabbit   Fri Aug 31 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean typhoon_tip   Fri Aug 31 2007 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 31 2007 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Climate Aficionado   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean Rich B   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean cieldumort   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean NewWatcher01   Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean doug   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean audienceofone   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:43 PM
. * * flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea LoisCane   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go LoisCane   Fri Aug 31 2007 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean doug   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
. * * Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination CoconutCandy   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean LoisCane   Fri Aug 31 2007 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean weatherguy08   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean LoisCane   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean weatherguy08   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean native   Fri Aug 31 2007 10:27 AM
. * * Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way CoconutCandy   Fri Aug 31 2007 09:18 AM

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