You're right - the 15mph was sort of an educated guess. I used the winds at Barbados at this time last night and figured that the Atlantic ridge probably hadn't changed much in the past 24 hours. We'll all know soon enough since the TD center should pass over (or very close to) Grenada at about 0500AST and Grenada is a 24hour station, i.e., they take weather observations all night.
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