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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean
Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM

I found this exerpt of the TWD to be fairly insightful/interesting...

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SOME SPREAD OCCURS. THE HWRF AND THE SHALLOW
AND MEDIUM MEAN LAYER BAM MODELS FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION
TO A 120 HR POSITION NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE TO BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE HWRF SHOWS THE STORM DISSIPATING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR ITS MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST
TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Traditionally, I have been used to seeing the models demonstrating a more westward biased when they see the system as weaker (shallower)...and a more northward biased when a stronger storm is forecast. In this case, the models are apparently showing the opposite (Per this NHC discussion blurb). I'd love to hear opinions on this, but my take is that a stronger system in this circumstance will strengthen the low/mid level ridge to the north and result in a more westward course....WIll be interesting to see if the other models move more toward the BAMS, BAMM, and the HWRF (Yucatan Channel)...or to see if the exact opposite will occur. Overall, the pattern does look like Dean revisited...but I'm sure there will be some interesting tracking differences in the coming days.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 31 2007 11:39 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	MikeC	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
Enter Felix, Stage Right	CoconutCandy	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 05:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:02 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	scottsvb	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	flahurricane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
down deep	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:08 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	StrmTrckrMiami	Fri Aug 31 2007 07:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rabbit	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Climate Aficionado	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rich B	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	NewWatcher01	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	audienceofone	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:43 PM
flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:27 AM
Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:18 AM

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