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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean
Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM

Hmmm...Well, the 06Z runs of the BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, and the Clipper (Climo and persistance model...not a reliable model) should be out soon. Mean time, I am very interested in seeing the 00Z Nogaps when it comes out. The 00Z GFDL has moved north a fair amount in the last run. Indicating a landfall about 50 miles north of whare Dean came in, but south of Cozumel. General tendancy is toward a subtile recurvature at the end of the track. The UKmet is much faster (probably too fast)...and a bit more concerning if it remains persistent in future runs. It is now showing a recurvature toward the NW and NNW into the central Gulf. With the GFS coming in at 00Z about 50-100 miles north of the NHC at 00Z...if the Nogaps moves northward on the 00Z...Then the NHC 11PM forecast track will be totally outside the guidance envelope (With particular respect to the "reliable models") on the southern end and a track update may be required at 5AM... We should know more about that soon...Like I mentioned earlier...the Windshield wipers are on!

In general, the compromise of the BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD have not bee bad in recent years as far as a consensus track...If they do not shift further north on the 06Z runs...the combination of them, the GFDL, the UKMET, and someothers may place a new track more towards Cozumel (a touch south of there)...with the GFS as a Southern Outlier and the CMC as an extreme southern outlier...But the CMC does not get as much attention for its track as the other big models.

Edited by dem05 (Sat Sep 01 2007 02:41 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	MikeC	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM
Enter Felix, Stage Right	CoconutCandy	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 05:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:02 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	scottsvb	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	flahurricane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
down deep	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:08 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	StrmTrckrMiami	Fri Aug 31 2007 07:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rabbit	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Climate Aficionado	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rich B	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	NewWatcher01	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	audienceofone	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:43 PM
flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:27 AM
Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:18 AM

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