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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean
Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM

I'd been watching for that BAM package to come out...I notice that SFWMD has basically updated all the other models as well. In that I also notice that the GFS ensemble (CONU) is now well north of the NHC 11PM as well...In fact, it is the southern outlier compared to BAM, Nogaps, GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET...but it is also north of where Dean slid on shore and it has a greater northern component than Dean did.

I will not model monger as things will likely windshield wiper a bit over time...but for now, the philosophy for track has changed from a westward mover into Belize to one that may be moving in an almost NW heading on approach to the Yucatan...As such, the models are currently seeming to center around the area south of Cozumel (around the BAMD)...Actually, right about where the CONU is pointing as of 6Z. Coincidently, if TD6 is gonna be a stronger storm (i.e. hurricane), I found it interesting that it moved north once again on this run of the BAMD...closer to the BAMM and the BAMS.

At 5AM, I would suspect that the track change will be subtle due to many changes in the overall appearances of the models. I wouldsay the 5AM will be smack in the middle between the 11PM and the 06Z BAMD track. Justin case the models do windshield wiper back.

Also interesting to note that none of the models have decided to grab the reigns and make TD6 ahurricane...Even though it is forecasted...and quite possible that it will do so. I wouldn't put 100% stockinto the major global models just yet.

Edited by dem05 (Sat Sep 01 2007 03:42 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	MikeC	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM
Enter Felix, Stage Right	CoconutCandy	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:40 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 05:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:02 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	scottsvb	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	flahurricane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
down deep	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:08 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	StrmTrckrMiami	Fri Aug 31 2007 07:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rabbit	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Climate Aficionado	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rich B	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	NewWatcher01	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	audienceofone	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:43 PM
flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:46 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 31 2007 10:27 AM
Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 09:18 AM

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