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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean
Sat Sep 01 2007 09:24 AM

5AM NHC Discussion...They must be picking up on the potential for model windshield wiper action with Felix based on their updated forceast path...or, and without meaning this with anegative tone...they are coming off of a high confidence with Dean and they may want to watch that Mother Nature does not chomp some finger tips down there...

For the very first time that I can think of, the NHC has absolutely abandoned the models here. In fact, they went as far to say that they dropped the forecast farther south, even though the whole model group generally moved north. The GFS, which they identify as the southern model package is in fact...north of the 11PM forecast as well as even farther north of the 5AM forecast. I'm pretty surprised, but I also know that they know what they are doing...Unfortunately, the NHC discussion did not mention their reasoning for going southward in any way that really backs the models, or why they are using independant thought...but if you look at the SFWMD site for the 00Z runs and Clark's page of the model plots for 06Z...I am sure you will agree. No knock on them, but they sided against conventional practice here. With that said, they must be really on to something....Therefore, in Belize, please note that they have Felix approaching Category 3 strength before landfall...Something to consider in preparations if the track does hold up. Mean time, further north in the Yucatan...you guys know the Hurricane drill too...

Edited by dem05 (Sat Sep 01 2007 09:26 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	MikeC	Sat Sep 01 2007 09:24 AM
Enter Felix, Stage Right	CoconutCandy	Sat Sep 01 2007 10:40 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 09:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 08:02 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 07:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 07:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 07:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	scottsvb	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 06:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 04:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	flahurricane	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:57 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:54 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:39 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	dem05	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:36 AM
down deep	HanKFranK	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:33 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:18 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Sat Sep 01 2007 03:08 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:57 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:45 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:13 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Sat Sep 01 2007 02:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 01:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 01:28 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Sat Sep 01 2007 01:16 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Sat Sep 01 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	StrmTrckrMiami	Fri Aug 31 2007 11:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 31 2007 08:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rabbit	Fri Aug 31 2007 07:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 06:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Climate Aficionado	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	Rich B	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	NewWatcher01	Fri Aug 31 2007 05:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	audienceofone	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:43 PM
flora 63 came in that low too but went out to sea	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination... no go	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 04:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:46 PM
Tropical Depression 6 / Felix Determination	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:46 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 03:27 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:52 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	LoisCane	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Developing East of Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 31 2007 02:27 PM
Tropical Depression / Felix On The Way	CoconutCandy	Fri Aug 31 2007 01:18 PM

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