Hurricane Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean

I'd also like to pitch in here. The models do generally favor a path toward Belize or the Yucatan portion Mexico. Toward the end of the guidance package, there is a sizable split between a storm approaching the Yucatan on a westward course, or a NW ward course. Only time will trimline the day 4and 5 in the models into some better agreement.

As forthe NAM Model. It does insist on pulling Felix north. With that said, the NAM is not considered one of the reliable hurricane forecast models...

...With that said, the NWS Tallahassee office has included the reasoning for why the NAM wants to pull Felix north...I don't feel the NAM has pulled it down correctly, but model was worthy of mention in Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion, so it can't be totally discounted either.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

Exerpt from Short term forecast:

ON MONDAY...THE NAM DEEPENS THE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
SLIGHTLY...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE PATH OF FELIX. THE NAM
SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE IN OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR EXTENDING DOWN
INTO NE GEORGIA. THE GFS SOLUTION IS DIFFERENT. LOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH DRYER AIR IN
OUR AREA. THERE IS LESS OF A CONNECTION BETWEEN TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SHOWS NO
CONNECTION BETWEEN FELIX AND TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST OF US. EAST-
WEST RIDGE AXIS BLOCKS ANY CONNECTION.

TUESDAY...THE NAM DEPICTS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS REALLY AFFECTS THE PATH OF
FELIX DRAWING IT FARTHER NORTHWARD. WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED
EXTENDING MORE EASTWARD AND MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH IN TEXAS
BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING IS THE
QUESTION...THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST
FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEEPEN...WITH NO CONNECTION TO FELIX. UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NOW CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE GFS DROPS THE POPS ON MONDAY TO 10 PERCENT WEST TO 36 PERCENT
SOUTHEAST. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CLIMO ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MAV.

.LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS...EXPECT POPS TO
GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVER SO SLOWLY RELINQUISHES
ITS HOLD OVER THE SE U.S. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK AND COMPLEX THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ANY SLIGHT CHANGES TO IT
COULD HAVE DRAMATIC RESULTS ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE MID-WEEK TIME
FRAME...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE PUSH TO REMOVE THE TRAPPED TROPICAL
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SLOW AND WEAK AT BEST.

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