Felix is getting its act together today; as it nears that warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, I expect we'll see more significant strengthening (assuming it doesn't occur sooner). NHC intensity forecast is conservative if anything at this point. Track forecast looks good as of now; remember, the models are prone to shifts back and forth at 4-5 days. We saw this with Dean and we're seeing it with Felix now. There may be a bit more significant signs of a weaker ridge across the southeast/Gulf of Mexico this time around, but the southerly route is still the most likely one.
Having said that and before moving on to 98L, just a brief reminder about the rules: discussion back and forth about the storms is fine; wishcasting or unsupported hyperbole is not. 99% of the time there's not a problem, just trying to nip things in the nub before they (might) become a concern.
98L is one of those that will likely be near the cusp of depression status sometime this weekend, likely as it nears 50W. There's more concrete discussion on this one in the Storm Forum, so I'm going to be brief here. It's starting further north than other recent features, making its potential track more uncertain. Right now, it's still being sheared somewhat from the east, and coupled with some dry air and marginal SSTs, expect slow organization for now.
Frontal low near Bermuda looks as good right now as Chantal and Barry did, but it's headed out to sea and is likely non-tropical thermally-speaking at this time. It might get a passing look in post-season analysis, given the mentions of the storm in the Tropical Weather Outlooks, but that's probably it for that one.
After Felix and 98L, the next one in line is about to come off of the African coast...and on and on from there. It's Cape Verde season, and it's here for September.
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean
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