cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean
Sun Sep 02 2007 01:26 AM
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Both key players (Felix & Henriette) tonight are doing nothing but improving their internal structures, while concurrently their respective environments improve, as well. Given these trends, hitting overnight convective maxes, and upcoming warm eddies (esp. for Felix) it's not difficult to buy into the figures coming out of the SHIPS Rapid Intensity Indexes.
Other recent systems - 96L looked about as good as a highly-sheared tropical storm as I've usually followed. Wouldn't be surprised if someone pipes up about giving it a second look when the season is done. Surprisingly-untagged is the feature now near 34N 60W, as Clark notes - looking as good as Barry or Chantal of earlier this season. (Just not as much a threat to land, if at all) Also, can't find any nearby obs from that area, and it has already begun melding with the approaching front.
Front draped across the south and which rides up the Ga/Sc coast needs to be watched for the potential of something bubbling up along it over the course of the next couple of days. Anything which might be able to develop along it.. (just offshore) ... could be a boomerang back at the states.
Plenty insight shared on 98L already, and I don't have much to add to it, other than I am wondering if it might be starting out *just* north enough to get looped back out to sea from the ULL currently centered around 25N 55W, and which has been digging in a little bit south of that tonight. There has been some hint of a trend for 98's convection to refire progressively north of wherever it fired up last, and might begin to be a case of chasing the deep convection.. progressively northbound and finally into the grasp of the ULL. If not, it could certainly end up a far greater concern for the islands in the northern Caribbean, and ultimately perhaps the CONUS. (All speculation at this point, of course - we don't even have a TD to concern ourselves with there, yet).
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