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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Ron Basso
Storm Tracker

Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL

Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane
Sun Sep 02 2007 04:04 PM

The key to this 4 to 5 day forecast and I won't speculate beyond that is the strength of the 500 mb trough over the central states in 5 days. This mornings GFS had that trough a little stronger than yesterdays runs, all the way down from the northern plains to TX. This feature, as well as the actual forward motion of Felix, are the two key variables to this forecast. One run that bothered me, and I'm sure it was just an anomalous one, was the 06Z HWRF. This model this year was introduced as on par with the GFDL - we'll see after Felix. Anyway, it stalls the storm just east of Belize and then slowly tracks it north along the east coast of the Yucatan. If this storm slows considerably or stalls, in the NW caribbean, then we are in for some major changes with the future track. I don't think that is likely now but still a reasonable possibility. We have to remember that the models are not real good when troughs interact with ridges because the timing is so important to directional movement (i.e. Charley). I don't see a dramatic situation like Charley but again we need to see how sharp that 500 mb trough becomes on Sept 7th.

--------------------
RJB

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching Category FIVE Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	MikeC	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:04 PM
Re: Vortex	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 09:18 PM
Re: Vortex	scottsvb	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:32 PM
Re: Vortex	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:42 PM
Re: Vortex	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:13 PM
Re: Vortex	doug	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:57 PM
Re: Vortex	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:35 PM
Re: Vortex	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:30 PM
Re: Vortex	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:21 PM
Re: Vortex	dem05	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:56 AM
Re: Vortex	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 07:04 AM
Re: Vortex	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 06:16 AM
Vortex	danielw	Mon Sep 03 2007 06:10 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:53 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	ltpat228	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:51 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:44 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:40 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:31 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:03 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 04:55 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 04:11 AM
NHC Discussion	danielw	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:44 AM
Area off the GA Coast	danielw	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:41 AM
Re: Felix	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:40 AM
Re: Felix	Clark	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:32 AM
Re: Felix	JY381	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:27 AM
Re: Felix	flahurricane	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:17 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:02 AM
Re: Felix	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:55 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:50 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	lunkerhunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:48 AM
Re: dvorak keeps changing	weather999	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:48 AM
Re: Felix	Clark	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:47 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Thunderbird12	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:38 AM
Felix	danielw	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:37 AM
Re: dvorak keeps changing	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:36 AM
dvorak keeps changing	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:29 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:14 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:13 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:03 AM
annular	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:02 AM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	weather999	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:00 AM
Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	CoconutCandy	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:33 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:29 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:09 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Lysis	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:08 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:56 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	punkyg	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:47 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	MikeC	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:45 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:35 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:32 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:32 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Thunderbird12	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:11 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	lunkerhunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:04 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	flahurricane	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:03 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	weather999	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:02 AM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:57 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	LoisCane	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:23 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Thunderbird12	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:21 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:18 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	weatherguy08	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:06 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	allan	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	weatherguy08	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:47 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Clark	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:47 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:09 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Thunderbird12	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:05 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	allan	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:03 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	flahurricane	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:53 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	DougBaker	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:48 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:31 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:22 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	StrmTrckrMiami	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:21 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	danielw	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:19 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Lee-Delray	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:18 PM
Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast?	StrmTrckrMiami	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:17 PM
Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast?	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:17 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Climate Aficionado	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:13 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Raymond	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:11 PM
what about the system off the Georgia coast?	vineyardsaker	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:05 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	StrmTrckrMiami	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:42 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:38 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:19 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:05 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:54 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:54 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	flhurricane	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:51 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	cieldumort	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:49 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:03 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Raymond	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:54 PM
Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	scottsvb	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:23 PM
Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	Ron Basso	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:04 PM
Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	Beaumont, TX	Sun Sep 02 2007 02:26 PM
Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	CoconutCandy	Sun Sep 02 2007 12:00 PM

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