i'm in line with thinking of felix as re-dean. it looks poised to do about the same thing to the yucatan. there is much noted uncertainty about it in the western gulf, with the modeling taking it further up. as much trouble as felix is likely to be, the thing emerging off the southeast coast is a much bigger deal. i guess it will be dubbed 99L inside the next couple of forecast cycles. aside from shear getting it like the pair of invests that got scrubbed last week off the east coast, this one looks like it will handle whatever the upper winds might throw at it, and get expertly blocked by rebounding ridging later this week. as hot as the waters off the east coast are right now, courtesy of that brutal august heatwave, i'd be very concerned that it will develop and go ape. next question is, does it go jeanne on us or go ophelia on us. my big worry is fitow. japan is about to get licked by a typhoon that got blocked and turned westward at fairly high latitude... and is riding all the way back in for a hit after looking like a slam-dunk recurvature earlier. i guess fitow is pronounced like fido, i dunno. what i do know is that if that weather teleconnection thing works out this time, we've got a backyard brew named gabrielle coming to thwack the southeast coast somewhere from the carolinas down to florida if something comes up quickly, look for felix's neat wnw solution to evaporate as the ridge erodes and the systems casually interact via their upper features and the impressions they make on the ridge features around them. if homeboy off georgia (who would probably really be homegirl... gabrielle) starts spinning up it will probably do so in a hell of a hurry, with the waters running 29-32c out there. i am not liking what i'm seeing this afternoon; that thing off the southeast is something i thought might show up, but now that i'm seeing it it's a whole different ballgame. 98L is getting easterly shear and coming up slowly. it's slid sw, getting pressed down by low-level riding. not too terribly dry, but SAL is out there to some degree slowing it up. mostly it's the winds below 500 mb blowing along too fast while the lowest level trades are slowed up ahead of the next big wave. if that big wave doesn't overtake it, decently formed 98L should get its convection together and start rolling. it's going to be a close thing... but if it's out there, then another caribbean threat and maybe long-range concern is in place. africa should keep spitting them out for the next couple of weeks. development emphasis starts to shift west as september gets late. HF 2109z02september *sorry to flahurricane for accidentally killing your post*
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