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Cat 3 Ian likely to intensify further *into* landfall. Major flooding/surge has begun w/Key West hitting 3rd all time high still rising
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Fiona) , Major: 394 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1448 (Michael) Major: 1448 (Michael)
25.2N 83.0W
Wind: 120MPH
Pres: 953mb
Moving:
Nne at 10 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
      Sun Sep 02 2007 05:09 PM

i'm in line with thinking of felix as re-dean. it looks poised to do about the same thing to the yucatan. there is much noted uncertainty about it in the western gulf, with the modeling taking it further up. as much trouble as felix is likely to be, the thing emerging off the southeast coast is a much bigger deal.
i guess it will be dubbed 99L inside the next couple of forecast cycles. aside from shear getting it like the pair of invests that got scrubbed last week off the east coast, this one looks like it will handle whatever the upper winds might throw at it, and get expertly blocked by rebounding ridging later this week. as hot as the waters off the east coast are right now, courtesy of that brutal august heatwave, i'd be very concerned that it will develop and go ape. next question is, does it go jeanne on us or go ophelia on us. my big worry is fitow.
japan is about to get licked by a typhoon that got blocked and turned westward at fairly high latitude... and is riding all the way back in for a hit after looking like a slam-dunk recurvature earlier. i guess fitow is pronounced like fido, i dunno. what i do know is that if that weather teleconnection thing works out this time, we've got a backyard brew named gabrielle coming to thwack the southeast coast somewhere from the carolinas down to florida
if something comes up quickly, look for felix's neat wnw solution to evaporate as the ridge erodes and the systems casually interact via their upper features and the impressions they make on the ridge features around them. if homeboy off georgia (who would probably really be homegirl... gabrielle) starts spinning up it will probably do so in a hell of a hurry, with the waters running 29-32c out there. i am not liking what i'm seeing this afternoon; that thing off the southeast is something i thought might show up, but now that i'm seeing it it's a whole different ballgame.
98L is getting easterly shear and coming up slowly. it's slid sw, getting pressed down by low-level riding. not too terribly dry, but SAL is out there to some degree slowing it up. mostly it's the winds below 500 mb blowing along too fast while the lowest level trades are slowed up ahead of the next big wave. if that big wave doesn't overtake it, decently formed 98L should get its convection together and start rolling. it's going to be a close thing... but if it's out there, then another caribbean threat and maybe long-range concern is in place.
africa should keep spitting them out for the next couple of weeks. development emphasis starts to shift west as september gets late.
HF 2109z02september
*sorry to flahurricane for accidentally killing your post*

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Category FIVE Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 02 2007 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Vortex LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Vortex scottsvb   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Vortex nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Vortex LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Vortex doug   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Vortex LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Vortex dem05   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:56 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Vortex danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2007 02:10 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:53 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:44 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:40 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:31 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:11 AM
. * * NHC Discussion danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:44 PM
. * * Area off the GA Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Felix typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Felix Clark   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Felix JY381   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Felix flahurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Felix typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! lunkerhunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: dvorak keeps changing weather999   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Felix Clark   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:38 PM
. * * Felix danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:37 PM
. * * Re: dvorak keeps changing Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:36 PM
. * * dvorak keeps changing LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:03 PM
. * * annular HanKFranK   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! weather999   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! CoconutCandy   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Lysis   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia punkyg   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia lunkerhunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia flahurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia weather999   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia weatherguy08   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia allan   Sun Sep 02 2007 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia weatherguy08   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Clark   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia HanKFranK   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia allan   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia flahurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia DougBaker   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Lee-Delray   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:18 PM
. * * Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast? StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM
. * * Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast? typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Climate Aficionado   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Raymond   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:11 PM
. * * what about the system off the Georgia coast? vineyardsaker   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia flhurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia cieldumort   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Raymond   Sun Sep 02 2007 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane scottsvb   Sun Sep 02 2007 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane Ron Basso   Sun Sep 02 2007 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane Beaumont, TX   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:26 AM
. * * Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane CoconutCandy   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:00 AM

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