As HF alluded to, it's all a question of shear with the feature off of Georgia. If it doesn't get attacked by it and/or the dry, descending air that comes with it, that's our next region of concern as all of the other ingredients in place look quite favorable for development. Until the steering currents become better defined, it's all speculation on an eventual track.
98L is status quo but still there as it heads west. NHC didn't run the 12z late or 18z early models on it today, so they may not be thinking much of it any longer, but it's got a shot to do something as it passes 50W. It was at 14N yesterday, but the SW motion HF also alluded to now has it closer to 11N; that makes a significant difference for down the road *if* something were to come of it. We'll see.
Felix? It's approaching the warm core oceanic eddy mentioned in the 5p NHC discussion and as I hinted at last night. The most recent microwave imager pass I have -- from about 2p ET -- suggests a well-defined inner core without significant outer banding or signs of an outer eyewall trying to form. Granted, the resolution of that imager is not great, but it still does not give any hints at any oncoming eyewall cycle. It will be very, very intriguing to see what recon finds this evening in terms of intensity. Honduras looks to take a sideswipe from this one while Belize or the southern Quintana Roo area of the Yucatan looks to take the full brunt of a landfall in 3ish days.
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