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Cat 3 Ian likely to intensify further *into* landfall. Major flooding/surge has begun w/Key West hitting 3rd all time high still rising
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Fiona) , Major: 394 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1448 (Michael) Major: 1448 (Michael)
25.2N 83.0W
Wind: 120MPH
Pres: 953mb
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Nne at 10 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Felix
      Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM

Quote:


Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.





Yeah, the 934mb is quite a bit higher than what you'd expect for a 165mph storm. Given that Felix is a very small storm, here's my theory as to what has happened: Able to quickly respond to changes in its environment, as Felix passed over the warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, the surface heat drawn off of the surface rapidly increased. This helped to rapidly enhance the (secondary) circulation of the storm and increase the strength of its warm core aloft. As this happened, the (primary) circulation of the storm strengthened rapidly, resulting in a sharp increase in wind speed. Also given its small size, the pressure gradient component to describing the wind field is likely very large -- the 1 mb/1 nm Danny mentioned suggests this as well -- but the angular rotational component is also likely very large, moreso than normal.

Anyway, enough technical debate. While an eyewall cycle didn't look imminent on microwave imagery as of 8pm ET, Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds. As an eyewall cycle occurs, perhaps starting tomorrow, the system will grow in size, likely bringing down the wind speeds further. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a temporary weakening down to a category 4 storm again tomorrow. From there, depending on how close it comes to Honduras on its way to the Yucatan/Belize, it will have the opportunity to re-strengthen into a category 5 storm before landfall. We may had gone 15 years since the last landfalling cat. 5 storm with Dean, but we may not go much more than 2 weeks between them if Felix does the same.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Category FIVE Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia MikeCAdministrator Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Vortex LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Vortex scottsvb   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Vortex nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Vortex LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Vortex doug   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Vortex LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Vortex dem05   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:56 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Vortex Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Vortex danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 03 2007 02:10 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion Storm Hunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:53 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:44 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:40 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:31 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion typhoon_tip   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: NHC Discussion LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:11 AM
. * * NHC Discussion danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:44 PM
. * * Area off the GA Coast danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Felix typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Felix Clark   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Felix JY381   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Felix flahurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Felix typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! lunkerhunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: dvorak keeps changing weather999   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Felix Clark   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:38 PM
. * * Felix danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:37 PM
. * * Re: dvorak keeps changing Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:36 PM
. * * dvorak keeps changing LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:03 PM
. * * annular HanKFranK   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! weather999   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! CoconutCandy   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Lysis   Sun Sep 02 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia punkyg   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia lunkerhunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia flahurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia weather999   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia LoisCane   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia weatherguy08   Sun Sep 02 2007 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia allan   Sun Sep 02 2007 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia weatherguy08   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Clark   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia HanKFranK   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Thunderbird12   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia allan   Sun Sep 02 2007 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia flahurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia DougBaker   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia danielwAdministrator   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Lee-Delray   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:18 PM
. * * Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast? StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM
. * * Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast? typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Climate Aficionado   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Raymond   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:11 PM
. * * what about the system off the Georgia coast? vineyardsaker   Sun Sep 02 2007 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia StrmTrckrMiami   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Storm Hunter   Sun Sep 02 2007 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia flhurricane   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia cieldumort   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Random Chaos   Sun Sep 02 2007 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia Raymond   Sun Sep 02 2007 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane scottsvb   Sun Sep 02 2007 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane Ron Basso   Sun Sep 02 2007 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane Beaumont, TX   Sun Sep 02 2007 10:26 AM
. * * Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane CoconutCandy   Sun Sep 02 2007 08:00 AM

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