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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

Reged:
Posts: 1710

Re: Felix
Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM

Quote:

Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.

Yeah, the 934mb is quite a bit higher than what you'd expect for a 165mph storm. Given that Felix is a very small storm, here's my theory as to what has happened: Able to quickly respond to changes in its environment, as Felix passed over the warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, the surface heat drawn off of the surface rapidly increased. This helped to rapidly enhance the (secondary) circulation of the storm and increase the strength of its warm core aloft. As this happened, the (primary) circulation of the storm strengthened rapidly, resulting in a sharp increase in wind speed. Also given its small size, the pressure gradient component to describing the wind field is likely very large -- the 1 mb/1 nm Danny mentioned suggests this as well -- but the angular rotational component is also likely very large, moreso than normal.

Anyway, enough technical debate. While an eyewall cycle didn't look imminent on microwave imagery as of 8pm ET, Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds. As an eyewall cycle occurs, perhaps starting tomorrow, the system will grow in size, likely bringing down the wind speeds further. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a temporary weakening down to a category 4 storm again tomorrow. From there, depending on how close it comes to Honduras on its way to the Yucatan/Belize, it will have the opportunity to re-strengthen into a category 5 storm before landfall. We may had gone 15 years since the last landfalling cat. 5 storm with Dean, but we may not go much more than 2 weeks between them if Felix does the same.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching Category FIVE Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	MikeC	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM
Re: Vortex	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:18 PM
Re: Vortex	scottsvb	Mon Sep 03 2007 11:32 AM
Re: Vortex	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Sep 03 2007 10:42 AM
Re: Vortex	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 10:13 AM
Re: Vortex	doug	Mon Sep 03 2007 09:57 AM
Re: Vortex	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:35 AM
Re: Vortex	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:30 AM
Re: Vortex	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:21 AM
Re: Vortex	dem05	Mon Sep 03 2007 04:56 AM
Re: Vortex	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 03:04 AM
Re: Vortex	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:16 AM
Vortex	danielw	Mon Sep 03 2007 02:10 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	Storm Hunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:53 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	ltpat228	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:51 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:44 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:40 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:31 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 03 2007 01:03 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:55 AM
Re: NHC Discussion	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 12:11 AM
NHC Discussion	danielw	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:44 PM
Area off the GA Coast	danielw	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:41 PM
Re: Felix	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:40 PM
Re: Felix	Clark	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:32 PM
Re: Felix	JY381	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:27 PM
Re: Felix	flahurricane	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:17 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 11:02 PM
Re: Felix	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:55 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:50 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	lunkerhunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM
Re: dvorak keeps changing	weather999	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM
Re: Felix	Clark	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Thunderbird12	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:38 PM
Felix	danielw	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:37 PM
Re: dvorak keeps changing	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:36 PM
dvorak keeps changing	LoisCane	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:29 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:14 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	LoisCane	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:13 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:03 PM
annular	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:02 PM
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	weather999	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:00 PM
Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!	CoconutCandy	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:33 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	LoisCane	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:29 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:09 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Lysis	Sun Sep 02 2007 09:08 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:56 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	punkyg	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:47 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	MikeC	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:45 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:35 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Thunderbird12	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:11 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	lunkerhunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:04 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	flahurricane	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:03 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	weather999	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:02 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:57 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	LoisCane	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:23 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Thunderbird12	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:21 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:18 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	weatherguy08	Sun Sep 02 2007 07:06 PM
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	allan	Sun Sep 02 2007 06:42 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	weatherguy08	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Clark	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:09 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Thunderbird12	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:05 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	allan	Sun Sep 02 2007 05:03 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	flahurricane	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:53 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	DougBaker	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:48 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:31 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:22 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	StrmTrckrMiami	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:21 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	danielw	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:19 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Lee-Delray	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:18 PM
Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast?	StrmTrckrMiami	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM
Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast?	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Climate Aficionado	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:13 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Raymond	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:11 PM
what about the system off the Georgia coast?	vineyardsaker	Sun Sep 02 2007 04:05 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	StrmTrckrMiami	Sun Sep 02 2007 03:42 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 03:38 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 02 2007 03:19 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Storm Hunter	Sun Sep 02 2007 03:05 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	flhurricane	Sun Sep 02 2007 01:51 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	cieldumort	Sun Sep 02 2007 01:49 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Random Chaos	Sun Sep 02 2007 01:03 PM
Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia	Raymond	Sun Sep 02 2007 12:54 PM
Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	scottsvb	Sun Sep 02 2007 12:23 PM
Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	Ron Basso	Sun Sep 02 2007 12:04 PM
Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	Beaumont, TX	Sun Sep 02 2007 10:26 AM
Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane	CoconutCandy	Sun Sep 02 2007 08:00 AM

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