Felix and More - FLHurricane.com

Update - Monday, 11:30PM EDT
Hurricane Felix on schedule for landfall in northern Nicaragua at about 12Z - probably as a borderline Cat III/IV hurricane. I suspect that the remnants of this small-core storm will die out in the high terrain of Guatemala.

Invest 98L no longer an item of interest - but it could begin to regenerate in a day or two in the central tropical Atlantic. Strong easterly shear (both surface and aloft) has dominated western Africa for about the last 3 or 4 weeks - don't expect anything out of that region until the environment changes.

A weak low pressure system continues to churn east of Florida - about 280 miles east northeast of Melbourne. The system has been slowly drifting to the east southeast over the past couple of days and it has been designated as Invest 99L. Wind shear is currently light (and so are the steering currents) but the shear is expected to increase above 29N by Wednesday.

Models are all over the place with this embryonic system. The UKMET and a couple of others have been consistent in slowly developing and moving this system in an anticyclonic loop - eventually bringing the system, as a tropical storm, across the Florida peninsula. Other models meander the system eastward in an erratic fashion, while still others take it off to the north or northeast - but into the teeth of some increasing shear. Although the system is not that far away, any movement will be slow - and development is far from certain at this time.

Invest 99L East of Florida

Here is a closeup IR view courtesy of MSFC:

MSFC View of Invest 99L

I think that we'll all keep a close eye on this one during the week.
ED

11:53 AM EDT Update 3 September 2007
Felix seems to be gaining a secondary eyewall, so reorganization or eyewall replacement may be starting once.the secondary eyewall has completely formed This process can take several hours to a day or so to complete.

Original Update
Hurricane Felix doesn't look as good on Satellite this morning as it appears to have bit of some dry air entering along the north or it's going through some reorganization now. It still remains a Category 5 Hurricane. Because of the current look I expect it to weaken a bit, still to a category 4 storm. Hopefully this would continue to weaken it more, but the dynamics around it will probably keep Felix a Category 4 or 5 system. The hurricane center is forecasting it to get a little stronger before landfall, in fact.

The current forecast track has moved a little south, now aiming for the border between Nicaragua and Honduras, that along with the rather fast forward motion of 21mph makes it necessary for both of those countries to issue Hurricane Warnings, which has been done.

Current model trends suggest that Felix may not make it into the Bay of Campeche, which will make it spin itself out, and get torn up over the mountains of the middle of Central America and Mexico.

The system off Georgia hasn't changed all that much, it's there, but pressures haven't lowered all that much. We'll continue to watch it.

98L Is holding together, and may still yet become a depression over the next few days.

More to come later...
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