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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland

Re: Felix and More
Mon Sep 03 2007 05:41 PM

Looks like it's weakened some, as seen on satellite.

Recon found:

116
URNT12 KNHC 031739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 03/17:23:00Z
B. 14 deg 14 min N
078 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2675 m
D. 118 kt
E. 005 deg 6 nm
F. 109 deg 114 kt
G. 014 deg 008 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C/ 3050 m
J. 19 C/ 3038 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. LLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z

Also note that the surface low of 953mb was located where there were 33kt winds (based on dropsonde data), so the actual pressure is probably lower.

EDIT:

Officially Category 4 at 2pm.

New microwave out - the core looks like it is undergoing complete reorganization - no sign of a well defined eye.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html

My guess is a combination of dry air entrainment and temporarily cooler (relatively) SSTs has resulted in the eye unable to sustain itself without an ERC, and as there was no 2ndary eyewall forming, it is going through an entire reorganization instead. I suspect in a few hours as it hits another very warm water zone will see it restrengthen and reform a well defined, possibly larger, eye.

You can see the heat potential here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00709030600.GIF

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 03 2007 06:33 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Felix and More	MikeC	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:41 PM
Re: Landfall	ShanaTX	Tue Sep 04 2007 07:29 AM
Re: Landfall	danielw	Tue Sep 04 2007 06:45 AM
Re: Landfall	charlottefl	Tue Sep 04 2007 06:36 AM
Landfall	danielw	Tue Sep 04 2007 06:28 AM
Re: Recon	cieldumort	Tue Sep 04 2007 06:16 AM
Re: Recon	danielw	Tue Sep 04 2007 05:59 AM
Re: Recon	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Sep 04 2007 05:08 AM
Recon	danielw	Tue Sep 04 2007 04:53 AM
Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in	Random Chaos	Tue Sep 04 2007 03:33 AM
Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in	cieldumort	Tue Sep 04 2007 03:18 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	flahurricane	Tue Sep 04 2007 02:20 AM
felix in, 98 out, 99 in	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 04 2007 02:15 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	TheWXMan	Tue Sep 04 2007 02:09 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	CarolinaGurl	Tue Sep 04 2007 02:01 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:50 AM
Re: Last night's recon abort	Random Chaos	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:37 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	lunkerhunter	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:27 AM
Last night's recon abort	weather999	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:26 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	oil tracker	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:23 AM
Re: Felix and More	nicaragua	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:18 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	Random Chaos	Tue Sep 04 2007 01:07 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	Lysis	Tue Sep 04 2007 12:55 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	Hugh	Tue Sep 04 2007 12:47 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	LoisCane	Tue Sep 04 2007 12:34 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	Ed in Va	Tue Sep 04 2007 12:19 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	flahurricane	Tue Sep 04 2007 12:17 AM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	Hugh	Mon Sep 03 2007 09:54 PM
Re: so what caused Felix to weaken?	flahurricane	Mon Sep 03 2007 09:30 PM
so what caused Felix to weaken?	LoisCane	Mon Sep 03 2007 09:22 PM
Felix	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:59 PM
99L	ltpat228	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:47 PM
Re: Felix and More	HCW	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:32 PM
Re: Felix and More	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:16 PM
Re: Felix and More	cieldumort	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:10 PM
Re: Felix and More	lunkerhunter	Mon Sep 03 2007 08:03 PM
Re: Felix and More	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 07:30 PM
Re: Felix and More	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 05:41 PM
Re: Felix and More	Random Chaos	Mon Sep 03 2007 04:28 PM

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