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Historic #HurricaneBeryl now in the Caribbean with a day or few left before shear is expected to increase. Elsewhere, Invest 96L is not doing so well.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Idalia) , Major: 306 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 306 (Idalia) Major: 306 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#12 4:00 pm EDT
12.4N 61.3W
Wind: 140MPH
Pres: 956mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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Rem Chris
ADV#4 4:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Felix and More
      Mon Sep 03 2007 01:41 PM

Looks like it's weakened some, as seen on satellite.

Recon found:

116
URNT12 KNHC 031739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 03/17:23:00Z
B. 14 deg 14 min N
078 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2675 m
D. 118 kt
E. 005 deg 6 nm
F. 109 deg 114 kt
G. 014 deg 008 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C/ 3050 m
J. 19 C/ 3038 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. LLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z

Also note that the surface low of 953mb was located where there were 33kt winds (based on dropsonde data), so the actual pressure is probably lower.

EDIT:

Officially Category 4 at 2pm.

New microwave out - the core looks like it is undergoing complete reorganization - no sign of a well defined eye.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tmi/tmi_85h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html

My guess is a combination of dry air entrainment and temporarily cooler (relatively) SSTs has resulted in the eye unable to sustain itself without an ERC, and as there was no 2ndary eyewall forming, it is going through an entire reorganization instead. I suspect in a few hours as it hits another very warm water zone will see it restrengthen and reform a well defined, possibly larger, eye.

You can see the heat potential here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00709030600.GIF

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 03 2007 02:33 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Felix and More MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 03 2007 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Landfall ShanaTX   Tue Sep 04 2007 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Landfall charlottefl   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Recon nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:53 AM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:33 PM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:20 PM
. * * felix in, 98 out, 99 in HanKFranK   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:15 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? TheWXMan   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:09 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? CarolinaGurl   Mon Sep 03 2007 10:01 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Last night's recon abort Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:27 PM
. * * Last night's recon abort weather999   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:26 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? oil tracker   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More nicaragua   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:07 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Lysis   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:55 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:34 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:30 PM
. * * so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Felix Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:59 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More HCW   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 12:28 PM

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