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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Felix and More
      Mon Sep 03 2007 07:30 PM

Ok, going to do a bit of analysis on the latest recon mission.

From the vortex data this thing looks like a borderline Category 2/3 with 96kt surface winds. Flight level readings from the HDOB maxed at about 102kt winds, though a 114kt occured in the N quad that didn't show up in the HDOB readings.

More interesting is the dropsonde. The eyewall dropsonde shows the wind speed at surface (112kt) stronger than at flight level (90kt), and if the 112kt surface reading hit the strongest spot in the eyewall, that would be pure luck. This would keep it a strong Category 3.

The eyewall is reported open, and from the HDOB readings the windfield has expanded. Temperature in the eye is 17C (dropsonde reported just over 18.2C) and in the eyewall it is 9C (dropsonde reported 10.2C). This makes a still strong 8C difference, but nothing close to what we saw last night.

With another hot eddy in front of it and still a ways to go for land, I would expect this reogranization phase to be over in a few more hours with a new eyewall developing and then shrinking. But first it has to finish mixing out the dry air it sucked in this morning.



Recon:

869
URNT12 KNHC 031919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 03/19:00:10Z
B. 14 deg 17 min N
078 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2678 m
D. 92 kt
E. 116 deg 6 nm
F. 216 deg 095 kt
G. 119 deg 007 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 9 C/ 3033 m
J. 17 C/ 3050 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN WNW
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 11
MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z
MAX SFC WIND 96KT NW QUAD 19:02Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 315__ / 6__ NM FROM FL CNTR

Eyewall dropsonde (the decoder app I wrote and in need of testing: http://aewww.firstones.com/dropsonde_decoder.php5 ):

171
UZNT13 KNHC 031918
XXAA 53197 99142 70788 04448 99979 25429 15112 00687 ///// /////
92500 22800 16609 85235 19000 18101 70889 10200 20590 88999 77999
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 120 SPL 1430N07881W 1901 MBL WND 16112 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 17103 979708 WL150 15121 078 =
XXBB 53198 99142 70788 04448 00979 25429 11974 24800 22850 19000
33723 12800 44703 12000 55697 08400
21212 00979 15112 11965 15626 22961 16117 33957 16116 44950 16104
55940 16608 66935 16615 77911 17099 88903 17602 99862 17595 11850
18101 22697 20589
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 120 SPL 1430N07881W 1901 MBL WND 16112 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 17103 979708 WL150 15121 078 =

Eye dropsonde:

371
UZNT13 KNHC 031917
XXAA 53197 99143 70790 04449 99953 27606 16512 00933 ///// /////
92263 25200 18508 85005 22421 20503 70687 18458 02507 88999 77999
31313 09608 81900
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1429N07897W 1903 MBL WND 18008 AEV 00000 DLM WND 20
503 953716 WL150 16509 075 =
XXBB 53198 99143 70790 04449 00953 27606 11878 22400 22850 22421
33767 18825 44744 19450 55713 19657 66696 18058
21212 00953 16512 11936 17507 22850 20503 33696 03507
31313 09608 81900
61616 AF306 1206A FELIX OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1429N07897W 1903 MBL WND 18008 AEV 00000 DLM WND 20
503 953716 WL150 16509 075 =



Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Felix and More MikeCAdministrator Mon Sep 03 2007 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Landfall ShanaTX   Tue Sep 04 2007 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Landfall charlottefl   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:36 AM
. * * Landfall danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Recon cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2007 06:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Recon nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Sep 04 2007 05:08 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 04 2007 04:53 AM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 03:33 AM
. * * Re: felix in, 98 out, 99 in cieldumort   Tue Sep 04 2007 03:18 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:20 AM
. * * felix in, 98 out, 99 in HanKFranK   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:15 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? TheWXMan   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:09 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? CarolinaGurl   Tue Sep 04 2007 02:01 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Last night's recon abort Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:37 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? lunkerhunter   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:27 AM
. * * Last night's recon abort weather999   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:26 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? oil tracker   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Felix and More nicaragua   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:18 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Random Chaos   Tue Sep 04 2007 01:07 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Lysis   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:34 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:19 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Tue Sep 04 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? Hugh   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:54 PM
. * * Re: so what caused Felix to weaken? flahurricane   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:30 PM
. * * so what caused Felix to weaken? LoisCane   Mon Sep 03 2007 09:22 PM
. * * Felix Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:59 PM
. * * 99L ltpat228   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More HCW   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More cieldumort   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More lunkerhunter   Mon Sep 03 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Felix and More Random Chaos   Mon Sep 03 2007 04:28 PM

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