cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Felix and More
Mon Sep 03 2007 04:10 PM
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Invest floater is now up on the disturbance off the southeast. (Link)
A couple of quick mentions regarding the two main systems of interest (Felix & likely soon to be 99L). Felix continues mostly westbound at too quickly a pace to feel whatever consequential tugs may have been imparted upon it by the upper low just now entering the pacific northwest. There is still some chance that it may begin to round the ridge which has been forcing it on this nearly due west path, but the window for this is closing fast. It becomes more and more likely with each couple of hours that it will follow course for a direct hit on mainland Nicaragua as a major hurricane.. with the question of whether it is a Cat 3,4, or 5 at landfall mostly having to do with internal structural fluctuations, which are common with all major hurricanes. At the current latitude Felix will not ride directly over the next tongue of more substantial TCHP, located about and north of 14.5N 80W. Also at its current latitude it would have to really begin moving with a greater northward component for it to miss a direct hit on Nicaragua, and ride the coasts of both Nicaragua and Honduras to cross over, say, Belize, or the Yucatan.
If Felix indeed does stay on this nearly due west path, it won't take long for it to have the bulk of its vorticity interrupted and moisture wrung out over the mountainous terrain of central America. Some of this moisture and perhaps the mid level vorticity may still eventually get caught up in the flow into Texas, on the heels of the current juicy inflow into the state from a Gulf of Mexico tropical wave & trough, as well as Henriette. Texas will probably remain under the influence of persistent low pressure through much of this week. (a low which almost has the look of a high pressure ridge on satellite, however is not high pressure, but rather a largely inverted trough )
If Felix does round the base of the ridge currently positioned to its north, then we may again have to start considering the potential for an eventual entry into the Bay of Campeche, but again, this becomes less and less likely with every hour Felix stays just on the south, or left, of official forecasts.
Getting back to the Invest - this is probably going to end up much more a concern for the CONUS . As several different model runs have also forecast, and many of us have already conjectured, a ridge may build in just to Invest's north, allowing him to fester long enough over anomalously warm Gulf Stream/nearby waters to fully transition into a tropical cyclone, and, to eventually and gradually get steered back north-northwest/northwest/ or west-northwest.. any pick of those three directions strongly suggests a landfall along the east coast.
The southwest may get "hit" by a much-weakened Henriette. The abundance of dry air out that way, even during the monsoon season, combined with often mountainous terrain, typically eats landfalling tropical cyclones out there for breakfast. It doesn't take long for them to fall to bits once crossing the Baja. Nonetheless, excessive rainfall, flash flooding, a few severe thunderstorms, and some very gusty winds may be experienced this week in some very unusual places, such as Arizona, southern California, or New Mexico. And as mentioned above, much of Henriette's moisture is already enhancing the tropical downpours over much of Texas.
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